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WTMendoza.com
Advanced Member
Username: Welcometomendoza

Post Number: 319
Registered: 7-2007


Posted on Monday, December 01, 2008 - 10:27 am:   Edit PostPrint Post

Since there are some serious stock market pickers that post on Travelsur, I though it would be nice to have a special thread for this.

Just last week, Mark/Lost in the Andes posted he likes some blue chips as long picks, an and index as a short pick until further notice.

Apts Ba says he doesn't trust any financials until further notice, but likes gold, and to whack around the SKF on appropriate days.

In my case , at this stage in the game,
I am
bearish:
FXY since 103.59
UUP since 25.78
CRM since 26.39
bullish:
OIL since 37.51
FXE since 142.23

I'm still up 27% for the year despite some of these underwater positions, and was short OIL since futures were trading at 140 to 145 (but covered at 129), was short CRM from the 50's but covered in the 30's the first time, and was short Gold from 900 to 1000 before the pullback. I also was long C when it was over 30 but stopped out since Apts BA rode me so hard on that one:-)(smiley)

I am more weary of the market than ever, especially since I truly believe the fundamentals and dynamics of Wall Street changed dramatically over the last few months with the consolidations. My picks usually are very allocated, and I try not to be in too many days if possible. I also like to take 5% to 10% profits when I see them. I am just learning this year how to scale out PROPERLY of positions. I do not like daytrading in general and usually dont have the time for it.

I do believe that there are some once in a lifetime picks out there right now, more than ever - especially on the long side, but it may be a while before things go up again. And who says the market is done falling. Guilty until proven inncocent.

Institutions may not be done yet dumping, and many of them are having problems doing so. And when there are mass exoduses like that, a PE and EPS almost means nothing in a downward vacuum. But at the end of the day, or month, it just means better entry for long term positions, providing it is a company that still has good management, fundies, and outlook.

Good luck!
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WTMendoza.com
Advanced Member
Username: Welcometomendoza

Post Number: 320
Registered: 7-2007


Posted on Monday, December 01, 2008 - 10:34 am:   Edit PostPrint Post

Since C was one of the "chosen" ones by the USA ovt., I think it is a fairly good bet on the long side here at 7.48 and took another small allocated long position, but with no greed on my agenda.
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Roberto
Board Administrator
Username: Admin

Post Number: 1810
Registered: 12-2004
Posted on Monday, December 01, 2008 - 12:13 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

Good thread, Sean! The nice thing about the markets is that they offer a miriad of plays. Mid/longer term I like food/farms: CRESY.
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Apartmentsba.com
Senior Member
Username: Saint

Post Number: 658
Registered: 5-2005


Posted on Monday, December 01, 2008 - 1:01 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

Hey Mendoza,

I didn't like C when you first mentioned it last year in the mid 20's and I still don't like it here. I'm still pessamistic on financials because they have more toxic waste. C is "garbage" and that is why the US government had to bail them out. Ask the FDIC how many billions were withdrawn the week prior to the bail out. I'm sure it would shock you.

I think if you have a LONG TERM investing horizon you might make a good return on some banks but I still say there are too many other good plays out there besides toxic waste financials. One still can't determine all the liabilities and when the government has to bail them out it's a tell tale sign things are pretty bad. Again, not saying you might not do ok on it but look at other "toxic waste" like AIG, FNM, FRE that the government bailed out and it had a brief run up but them reality brought them back down.

I"m staying away from all financials until the billions of dollars in write downs and losses are over.

I predicted last year what was going to happen in the financial sector and I could clearly see all this toxic waste on the books and losses. I still say they have more toxic waste via residential/commercial real estate losses (with commercial taking more of a hit in 2009). Also, the credit card debt losses coming and auto loans as well.

The markets are clearly broken. Look at the daily swings. Personally I've been trading the swings on it and doing pretty well. Stocks like SKF have been very kind playing but very volatile.

2009 will be a tough year all around the world. I still see nothing in the financials to be optimistic about until their done writing down their losses. I didn't like C at $25 before and I still don't like it here.

Good luck.
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Apartmentsba.com
Senior Member
Username: Saint

Post Number: 661
Registered: 5-2005


Posted on Monday, December 01, 2008 - 5:38 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

Today brought people back to reality. Market simply can't rally for any sustainable period without the financials participating which is what I've been saying all year long.

The volatility both ways has been massive. For those that want to take advantage of the volatility you could trade. Day trading is NOT for 99.999% of people out there but for those looking for plays you can play with ETF's. The double or triple weighted ones are VERY volatile and make for a field day but NOT for the faint of heart.

Look at double weighted ETF's like SKF (short financials) or UYG (long financials). Today they had a 30% swing each. One had a 30% loss on the day and one had a 30% gain.

If you really like volatility look at triple weighted funds like FAZ (up 41% on the DAY) or FAS (long financials) down 43% on the day.

Again, day trading these ETF's aren't for everyone but for those trading it doesn't get much more volatile than these types of funds.

I said earlier today that financials are still pretty much "toxic waste" and I stand by that. Still billions and billions and billions more losses yet to come.
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Mark
Junior Member
Username: Lostintheandes

Post Number: 37
Registered: 10-2008
Posted on Monday, December 01, 2008 - 9:44 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

Where I stand...short the Russle 2000(down 13% today)
long blue chips with dividends(will repeat list if needed..down 6%)
Short GS and COF...added to both positions with last weeks head fake ralley. (GS down 17%, COF down 21%)

I see the dollar weakening but not placing ang bets other than oil and silver positions which I hold.
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WTMendoza.com
Advanced Member
Username: Welcometomendoza

Post Number: 322
Registered: 7-2007


Posted on Tuesday, December 02, 2008 - 6:49 am:   Edit PostPrint Post

Hey Apts BA,

If you wanted to talk in those terms, I don't like any stock, any time, ever. That summarizes more just my love/hate relationship with what I feel are heavily manipulated stock markets. But for me it' not about love/hate, it's about trading a one to four+ session trend that I think I have identified.

C is a classic example of a stock in play and probably a better idea long for the moment, than short, due to the worldly events surrounding it. For me it's all about scaling in with small allocations at optimum times with automatic buys, and obtaining an average cost that you can do something with when you scale out of it, with automatic sells. Highly allocated entries mean little or no pain. Like anyone, I am never always right.

Mark, would you mind posting that list here? Congrats on the Russell!

Roberto - look forward to your ideas! About CRESY, the first thing I notice, that despite its dramatic fall recently, it still has a P/E of 194? could that be right?

On a separate thought, anybody have any thoughts on NYSE:TS and its Argentine related cousin BIT:TEN ?
Their quarterly report is worth a read , if anything
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Mark
Junior Member
Username: Lostintheandes

Post Number: 38
Registered: 10-2008
Posted on Tuesday, December 02, 2008 - 7:26 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

Sure,
End of Oct I went long a basket of blue chips that were DOW components with the highest yields minus a couple of financials.
On Nov 5 I posted "And thumbs up for a short term ride on Dividend producing,beaten down,blue chips stocks and world bond funds that will benefit from a falling dollar".
And on Nov 12 I shared that list, "CAT,CVX,IBM,JNJ,KO,MCD,MMM,MSFT,PFE,PG,T,UTX,VZ.
Last week I felt nakedly long and went short an equal amount of RUT(Russle 2000 small cap). So far this strategy is working.(famouse last words). I also challenged Mike on his RE in BA but thats another story.
Buenos Noches
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WTMendoza.com
Advanced Member
Username: Welcometomendoza

Post Number: 325
Registered: 7-2007


Posted on Wednesday, December 03, 2008 - 7:16 am:   Edit PostPrint Post

Mark, excellent companies and picks, but don't be surprised if some of them get more sucked into the black hole as institutional and tax selling still looms.

Here are some interesting numbers, if they are accurate

Stock, and institutional ownership:
CAT 68%
CVX 64%
IBM 60%
JNJ 64%
KO 66%
MCD 75%
MMM 67%
MSFT 59%
PFE 68%
PG 59%
T 58%
UTX 79%
VZ 61%

I wonder what the institutional numbers were 3 months ago? Does anybody know where a good source is for this info?

Interesting that 93% own CRM which supposedly has a P/E of 97 and a forward P/E of over 300. I wonder how accurate these numbers are.
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Apartmentsba.com
Senior Member
Username: Saint

Post Number: 663
Registered: 5-2005


Posted on Wednesday, December 03, 2008 - 7:30 am:   Edit PostPrint Post

The market should stay volatile (both up and down) for a while. The volatility is pretty insane. I've always said in this type of market "buy and hold" isn't the best solution. I've been trading a bit but going on vacation December 8 for 1.5 months so won't be trading. I still think the market has room to fall once unemployment #'s are fully realized.

Here is an ok site to track institutional activity. However I don't think you can back track by past dates.

http://www.mffais.com/c.html
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WTMendoza.com
Advanced Member
Username: Welcometomendoza

Post Number: 327
Registered: 7-2007


Posted on Wednesday, December 03, 2008 - 7:57 am:   Edit PostPrint Post

Thanks Mike - sounds like a nice time off!
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Eric Baeder
New member
Username: Doggieboy

Post Number: 12
Registered: 7-2006
Posted on Wednesday, December 03, 2008 - 12:29 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

My recent acquisitions have been DUK, CAT, ED, MO, PM and PG. I’m looking at AAPL, COP, MRO and PPG if any of them fall to a level that I like. I’d buy back into DE if it fell a lot.

Long term, I worry about inflation and like China (MCHFX) and Brazil (EWZ) because they understand the strange concept of spending less than they take in. Agriculture, because the worlds supply of food seems to be dropping. Traditional energy oil/gas companies, (I have been beaten up with PBR, which I still have and like). I’ll jump into metals/mining when I feel that the time is right (VGPMX).

Roberto’s CRESY intrigues me. I read their cost of land was a tiny fraction of what farmland is in the US. Their P/E was around 10? It appears that they are beaten up and might be worth looking at. I understand that they have some cash, so I’m definitely be interested. I’m would not care to buy anything at this time that couldn’t weather more bad economic news. Fool.com had them down as a stock to look at

Someday financial stocks are going to be a great opportunity. I’m just not smart enough to know when, so I’m staying away for quite a while. I don’t need to catch every wave, just a few good ones and be smart enough to take some money off of the table after they have had a good run.

Regards,

Eric
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WTMendoza.com
Advanced Member
Username: Welcometomendoza

Post Number: 328
Registered: 7-2007


Posted on Wednesday, December 03, 2008 - 10:52 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

Hi Eric, nice list - the current day fundies on so many stocks seem like a dream to last year, but when o' when will it mean something lol. No but I think some of the greatest long term opportunities are coming in a huge array of good stocks, and the probable wall of worry in some cases will be vicious at times, and yeah the financials are a different tribe at this stage in the game.

I thought I could so-soon scale in another C long allocation today between 5 and 6 , but based on the beige book tape I instead cancelled my auto sell order of 7.84 to see where it goes tomorrow. I also added a third bit of OIL at 27.49 to bring my long average down to 34.78

The 7.84 on C cracks me up because that was the 5% target-from-entry number I used here and it ironically was the high of the day. Im sure I'll regret that tommorow lol.

Eveything seems so wound up so tight, like it's all waiting for some strong upwards general sessions throughout the weeks ahead which coud likley combo rising energy and the dollar pulling back some.

What service are you using to see CRESY fundies?
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Roberto
Board Administrator
Username: Admin

Post Number: 1811
Registered: 12-2004
Posted on Thursday, December 04, 2008 - 1:59 am:   Edit PostPrint Post

It's all a bit scary now... to me, anyway. The treasury's rally and oil still collapsing. Dryships can't stop its monumental slide. I would be very very scared to touch any of the financial stocks mentioned by Mark or Eric's/Sean's bluechips. I would not want to be in tech or emerging markets. Capex appears to be collapsing everywhere. No capital investment, no future growth.

The bet on CRESY is a general one not supported by fundamentals as I do not know specifics about the company other than that a good chunk of their land has more value as RE development. I think of it as a bet on Elsztain (remember the story about the $10 mill check he got from Soros?), proximity to circles of power both locally and abroad and because I assume that when all this comes to an end, it will not be pretty. In a scenario where oil skyrockets or the dollar tanks, farm products may stand a chance. Same thing if inflation skyrockets or if economic instability turns into political instability and that leads to regional wars somewhere. If deflation becomes the norm, it will lead to concentration and then to supply shocks once the world begins to grow again. So it's a hedge. Incidentally, Marc Faber mentioned it on an interview a few days ago which suprised me.

Tenaris has the mythical figure of P. Rocca and that would be enough to make it a strong choice. But then you may have to wait until the outlook for the steel industry improves, internationally. These kind of companies have prospered in the past mostly because of their entanglement with power, like Yabran's and others. Other than these, you can also consider BG which is one of the few argentine multinationals... although like Tenaris they are domiciled abroad. I do not have a position in any of the above (yet) but wanted to bring them up as the argentine part of this thread. In the US, I am keeping an eye on FRPT. Played it in the past and could be that their time has come again.
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WTMendoza.com
Advanced Member
Username: Welcometomendoza

Post Number: 329
Registered: 7-2007


Posted on Friday, December 05, 2008 - 5:27 am:   Edit PostPrint Post

sold off C yesterday at 7.96, and added even a fourth smaller tad of OIL long at 25.23 making my average 33.32.

This is a very signicant development, and dissapointing:

Big 3 car executives agree to take orders from Washington

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/big-3-car-ex ecutives-agree/story.aspx?guid=D21A30D2-9F11-4223- BFA9-DE8645F7528B&dist=SecEditorsPicks#comments

Here is an amazing snippet:

"It would be very helpful for us, whether it's a board or an individual, to have someone to work with on this, to submit our proposals and then for that person to say, 'OK, don't agree with that. You've got to change this,'" said GM CEO Richard Wagoner. "And if that person was to have strong powers to execute it, that would be fine with us."
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Apartmentsba.com
Senior Member
Username: Saint

Post Number: 665
Registered: 5-2005


Posted on Friday, December 05, 2008 - 6:38 am:   Edit PostPrint Post

Hey Mendoza,

Congrats on the quick C trade. I think that's what it's about in this kind of volatile market. I know "buy and hold" is typically the way to make money but I think it's good to take advantage of the volatility (both to the upside and downside) in this market.

The car makers are at a desperation point. Personally I think they need to go bankrupt and re-organize. There is NO long-term future for them without reorganization. It's a losing proposition for the government unless they can get things reorganized. If not, they will be around with hat in hand again next year for more money.
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WTMendoza.com
Advanced Member
Username: Welcometomendoza

Post Number: 332
Registered: 7-2007


Posted on Friday, December 05, 2008 - 6:55 am:   Edit PostPrint Post

Hi Mike, I don't even like buy and hold anymore, since a HUGE fiasco I went through in 1998-2002. I am happy with any 5% profits in a few days or weeks, so I take them whenever they are handed to me.

Yeah I agree I hate to see the unemployment scene get far worse through BK by the auto companies, but feeding them money only feeds the problem probably. I continue to be in shock they didn't tackle the current issues, years ago.
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WTMendoza.com
Advanced Member
Username: Welcometomendoza

Post Number: 333
Registered: 7-2007


Posted on Friday, December 05, 2008 - 7:02 am:   Edit PostPrint Post

I gotta give credit to those guys at Merrill lynch - they predicted back mid-year that oil prices were due for the biggest drop since 2001, and they remained consistent on it, in spite of so many around them saying that oil was going to $200

Here is their latest, which sounds doubtful but I never expect surprises anymore - anything can happen it seems


http://tinyurl.com/5r62lq (edited by admin because URL construct)

Oil to Plunge Below $25 Next Year, Merrill Lynch Says

Crude oil prices may crash below $25 a barrel next year and gas prices could fall below $1 a gallon if the global recession spreads to China, an energy analyst and CEO said Thursday.

Demand for oil will continue to decline in 2009 as economic growth slows to its weakest level since 1982, Merrill Lynch Commodity Strategist Francisco Blanch concluded in a report.

"A temporary drop below $25 a barrel is possible if the global recession extends to China and significant non-OPEC cuts are required," Blanch was quoted by Bloomberg as saying. "In the short-run, global oil demand growth will likely take a further beating as banks continue to cut credit to consumers and corporations."

In October, when oil was trading for around $100 a barrel, Merrill predicted prices could drop to $50. Oil fell Friday to $43.64 a barrel in electronic trading.

The last time crude fell below $25 a barrel was November 2002.

Meanwhile, Gulf Oil CEO Joe Petrowski said on Wednesday that the price of oil could sink even lower — to $20 a barrel — and gasoline prices could drop as low as $1 a gallon by early next year.

Gulf Oil, based in Newton, Massachusetts, is an oil wholesaler.

"The damage to the economy by the financial turmoil is much bigger than the market initially thought," said Tetsu Emori, commodity markets fund manager at ASTMAZ Futures Co. in Tokyo. "The economic data now is much worse than what we expected a few months ago."

Oil prices have fallen about 70 percent since peaking at $147.27 in July.

Dismal economic data continued Thursday in the U.S., pointing toward a sharp contraction of gross domestic product in the fourth quarter and weakening demand for crude products, such as gasoline.

The government said the number of people continuing to claim unemployment benefits last week reached 4.09 million, the highest level since December 1982, while the proportion of workers receiving benefits matched a level reached 16 years ago, in September 1992.

Factory orders plunged a bigger-than-expected 5.1 percent in October caused by big cutbacks in demand for steel, autos, computers and heavy machinery. It was the largest decrease since an 8.5 percent fall in July 2000.

On Thursday, AT&T said it was slashing 12,000 jobs, or about 4 percent of its work force. Chemicals company DuPont said it will cut 2,500 jobs and media conglomerate Viacom Inc. said it will eliminate about 850 jobs.

Investors will be eyeing the Labor Department's November unemployment report on Friday, which economists expect will show that the jobless rate rose to 6.8 percent and that companies cut another 320,000 jobs.

"It could take a while before the economy and oil prices really hit bottom," Emori said. "Oil seems headed below $40."

In other Nymex trading, gasoline futures rose 0.44 cent to 97 cents. Heating oil fell 0.67 cent to $1.50 a gallon while natural gas for January delivery slid 7.9 cents to 5.94 per 1,000 cubic feet.

In London, January Brent crude rose 7 cents to $42.35 on the ICE Futures exchange.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

(Message edited by admin on December 05, 2008)
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Apartmentsba.com
Senior Member
Username: Saint

Post Number: 667
Registered: 5-2005


Posted on Friday, December 05, 2008 - 7:51 am:   Edit PostPrint Post

Yep. I like getting in and out depending on market conditions. I know so many friends that made HUGE amounts of money (on paper) the past few years but it all vanished up in smoke and now those huge amounts are losses.

In the stock market you have to be able to use stop losses and also not be afraid to admit you made a mistake and just walk away or even reverse and go the other way. Also, not fall in love with stocks.

This market's volatility is a curse to some but for traders it is a blessing as it swings violently both ways.

On Oil I have to admit that I didn't see that huge reverse coming so quickly. It just makes me think even more that market is totally manipulated. I know professional money managers that manage billions of dollars and they won't touch oil anymore as that last swing was so violent.
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WTMendoza.com
Advanced Member
Username: Welcometomendoza

Post Number: 334
Registered: 7-2007


Posted on Friday, December 05, 2008 - 9:40 am:   Edit PostPrint Post

just added a huge allocation of OIL at 24.87 , thinking short term reversal today. Stop loss in place at 24.40 for that same allocation. Won't be back in front of computer today
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WTMendoza.com
Advanced Member
Username: Welcometomendoza

Post Number: 335
Registered: 7-2007


Posted on Friday, December 05, 2008 - 12:20 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

had a chance to login and see that my stop loss order didn't get placed properly (flick of a key) through so here OIL is at 24.01, but glancing at some of the energy stocks, something may be up - so now I placed a stop loss at 23.50 for that last alottment - just below low of the day
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Mark
Junior Member
Username: Lostintheandes

Post Number: 39
Registered: 10-2008
Posted on Friday, December 05, 2008 - 6:05 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

I think there is a bottom somewhere in oil...China may be the key as I read today about the demand for oil there. If China drops over the precipice of recession might still see lower yet. The confounding issue is the Dollar. I expect it will start to fall soon against other currency(not Argentinian pesos) and since oil is priced in US$ that would help the price of oil.
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Apartmentsba.com
Senior Member
Username: Saint

Post Number: 670
Registered: 5-2005


Posted on Friday, December 05, 2008 - 6:16 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

Actually Oil is getting interesting at these low levels. I'm not really bullish on the market even at these beaten down levels but I'm starting to look at oil here. It's beaten down quite a bit. It may get cheaper but I would have to think the airlines are salivating at these prices considering it was as high as $140 a few short months ago. I wonder if airlines are locking in contracts at these prices. Most of them were counting on $90 and $100 oil for the next 2 years. I'd lock in oil at these low prices.

It's truly amazing to see the amount of deleveraging going on and still playing out today.
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Mark
Junior Member
Username: Lostintheandes

Post Number: 40
Registered: 10-2008
Posted on Friday, December 05, 2008 - 7:08 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

I read where Mexico sold a whole bunch of futures at somewhere north of 100. It wouldn't surprize me if the Airlines were the chumps on that deal. Like I said China is the key...if that economy quits expanding then It wouldn't surprize me to see $25 oil. It is the purest of the commodities as proven reserves are very cheap to get to market and with no need for exploration the price of drilling is out of the equation.

Chau
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Mark
Junior Member
Username: Lostintheandes

Post Number: 41
Registered: 10-2008
Posted on Friday, December 05, 2008 - 7:18 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

I googled this headline

"Oil price plummets below $45 a barrel and experts say it could reach $25 if recession hits China"
By Daily Mail Reporter
Last updated at 3:12 PM on 05th December 2008
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Eric Baeder
New member
Username: Doggieboy

Post Number: 13
Registered: 7-2006
Posted on Saturday, December 06, 2008 - 8:43 am:   Edit PostPrint Post

If there is one thing that I have learned about oil is that it always overshoots. Both up and down. I owned a great energy fund and when oil was going up and hit $45, I dumped it.(no point in getting greedy) $100 oil made no sense to me and you can imagine my surprise/dismay when it neared $150. I can see oil reaching the $20's and I have picked out a couple of oil stocks that I like, when it gets in that range.
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WTMendoza.com
Advanced Member
Username: Welcometomendoza

Post Number: 336
Registered: 7-2007


Posted on Wednesday, December 10, 2008 - 2:13 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

added to portfolio:

long:
MSFT at 21.60
HAL 16.47
UNG 23.59
TS 19.53

aprox 5% targets in the coming days or a week or so
no stop losses in place for now - ready to scale in with another allocation if needed and appropiate.
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WTMendoza.com
Advanced Member
Username: Welcometomendoza

Post Number: 337
Registered: 7-2007


Posted on Wednesday, December 10, 2008 - 2:24 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

sorry meant MSFT at 20.60
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WTMendoza.com
Advanced Member
Username: Welcometomendoza

Post Number: 338
Registered: 7-2007


Posted on Thursday, December 11, 2008 - 3:02 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

auto-sell kicked in:
HAL 17.34
TS 20.56

added:
long:
EMC 10.62
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Mark
Junior Member
Username: Lostintheandes

Post Number: 43
Registered: 10-2008
Posted on Thursday, December 11, 2008 - 6:43 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

Oil up on dollar weakness...Last weak I said I thought the dollar would fall and I expect more through the end of the year.
m
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WTMendoza.com
Advanced Member
Username: Welcometomendoza

Post Number: 339
Registered: 7-2007


Posted on Friday, December 12, 2008 - 8:22 am:   Edit PostPrint Post

I will be off the computer for a large chunk of today starting now - I just put in avery aloc9ated limit order for F at 1.78. The end game might not change, but I think the story is still in motion
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WTMendoza.com
Advanced Member
Username: Welcometomendoza

Post Number: 344
Registered: 7-2007


Posted on Sunday, December 14, 2008 - 9:45 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

This scandal is surely to affect random stocks in the short term, and probably some in the mid-term also. Domonioe efect will be in full force as margin calls kick in, related to this utter fiasco.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122914169719104017 .html?mod=mktw#printMode

DECEMBER 13, 2008 Fund Fraud Hits Big Names

Madoff's Clients Included Mets Owner, GMAC Chairman, Country-Club Recruits

By ROBERT FRANK, PETER LATTMAN, DIONNE SEARCEY and AARON LUCCHETTI
New potential victims emerged of Wall Street veteran Bernard Madoff's alleged giant Ponzi scheme, with international banks, hedge funds and wealthy private investors among those sorting out what could amount to tens of billions of dollars in losses.
New York Mets owner Fred Wilpon, GMAC LLC Chairman J. Ezra Merkin and former Philadelphia Eagles owner Norman Braman were among the dozens of seemingly sophisticated investors who placed money on what could prove to be history's largest financial scam.
View Interactive
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Complete Coverage: Bernard MadoffHow Madoff Makes People Look DumbHow Safe Are Investors From Fallout?SEC Press Release on Madoff's CaseSEC ComplaintPress Release on Madoff's ArrestCriminal ComplaintArchives
Bernie Madoff Asks Investors To Keep Mum
5/7/2001Wall Street Mystery Features a Big Board Rival
12/16/1992Giant French bank BNP Paribas, Tokyo-based Nomura Holdings Inc. and Neue Privat Bank in Zurich are also exposed, according to people familiar with the matter.
And at least three funds of hedge funds -- which raise money from investors and farm it out to hedge funds -- may have significant losses. Fairfield Greenwich Group and Tremont Capital Management of New York placed hundreds of millions of their investors' dollars into funds overseen by Mr. Madoff. On Friday, Maxam Capital Management LLC reported a combined loss of $280 million on funds they had invested with Mr. Madoff.
"I'm wiped out," said Sandra Manzke, Maxam's founder and chairman. The Darien, Conn., fund of hedge funds will have to close as a result of the losses, she said.
Mr. Madoff, the founder and primary owner of Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities LLC in New York, was arrested and charged Thursday. Prosecutors allege that the 70-year-old Mr. Madoff hid losses, paying certain investors returns using principal he received from other investors. Prosecutors and regulators have yet to determine how much has been lost, or the amount in assets still held by Mr. Madoff's business.
The alleged fraud has "swept up some of the most prominent and wealthy Americans, along with many people who thought they were embarking on a comfortable retirement and have now been left destitute," says Brad Friedman, a lawyer at Milberg LLP, which with Seeger Weiss LLP represents more than 30 investors with losses they believe could total more than $1 billion.
In criminal and civil complaints, Mr. Madoff is quoted as saying the losses could amount to $50 billion.
"This is a real tragedy," Mr. Madoff's attorney, Ike Sorkin, said Friday. "We're going to fight through these events and do what we can to minimize the loss."
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Splash News
Bernard Madoff leaving court after his arrest late Thursday.
Details emerged Friday of how Mr. Madoff ran the alleged scam, fostering a veneer of exclusivity and creating an A-list of investors that became his most powerful marketing tool. From New York and Florida to Minnesota and Texas, the money manager became an insider's choice among well-heeled investors seeking steady returns. By hiring unofficial agents, tapping into elite country clubs and creating "invitation only" policies for investors, he recruited a steady stream of new clients.
During golf-course and cocktail-party banter, Mr. Madoff's name frequently surfaced as a money manager who could consistently deliver high returns. Older, Jewish investors called Mr. Madoff " 'the Jewish bond,' " says Ken Phillips, head of a Boulder, Colo., investment firm. "It paid 8% to 12%, every year, no matter what."
As his reputation grew, Mr. Madoff gained the trust of prominent businessmen, including ex-Eagles owner Mr. Braman, who owns a chain of Florida auto dealers. A voicemail message left with Mr. Braman's office was not immediately returned.
Mets owner Mr. Wilpon, who also owns real-estate investor Sterling Equities, often raved about Mr. Madoff's investment prowess and invested tens of millions of dollars of both his own money and the team's with his company, say financiers who have worked with him. Mr. Madoff handled investments for the Judy & Fred Wilpon Family Foundation, which distributed about $1 million a year in 2005 and 2006 to charities, according to its most recent federal tax returns..
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Associated Press
People flocked to the lobby of Mr. Madoff's office building Friday.
Mets spokesman Jay Horowitz declined to comment Friday. Mr. Wilpon's Sterling Equities said in a statement: "We are shocked by recent events and, like all investors, will continue to monitor the situation."
Mr. Merkin, the chairman of former General Motors Corp. financing arm GMAC, is also a money manager at Ascot Partners LLC in New York. Ascot, which had $1.8 billion under management as of Sept. 30, had substantially all of its assets invested with Mr. Madoff, according to a letter to Mr. Merkin sent to clients Thursday night. Mr. Merkin said as one of the largest investors in Ascot, he believed he had personally "suffered major losses from this catastrophe."
Mr. Merkin could not be reached for comment.
Mr. Madoff tapped social networks in Dallas, Chicago, Boston and Minneapolis. In Minnesota, he attracted investors from Hillcrest Golf Club of St. Paul and Oak Ridge Country Club in Hopkins, investors say. One of them estimated that investors from the two clubs may have invested more than $100 million combined.
One of the largest clusters of Madoff investors was in Florida, where losses could be substantial. Mr. Madoff relied on a network of friends, family and business colleagues to attract investors. According to investors and agents, some of these agents were paid commissions for harvesting investors. Others had separate, lucrative business relationships with Mr. Madoff.
"If you were eating lunch at the club or golfing, everyone was always talking about how Madoff was making them all this money," one investor says. "Everyone wanted to sign up."
Jeff Fischer, a top divorce attorney in Palm Beach, says many of his clients were also Mr. Madoff's clients. "Every big divorce that came through my office had portfolio positions with Madoff," he says.
Two of his investors said that among his clients, Mr. Madoff was considered a money-management legend; they would joke that if Mr. Madoff was a fraud, he'd take down half the world with him.
Richard Spring, a Boca Raton resident and former securities analyst, says he had about $11 million -- or 95% of his net worth -- invested with Mr. Madoff. "That's how much I believed in him," Mr. Spring said.
Inside Wall Street's Madoff Scandal
3:55
Another large-scale scandal rocks Wall Street as Bernard Madoff, a Wall Street titan and investment advisor was arrested for an alleged $50 billion dollar fraud against investors, WSJ's Kelsey Hubbard and Amir Efrati discuss.
Mr. Spring said he was also one of the unofficial agents who connected Mr. Madoff with dozens of investors, from a teacher who put in $50,000 to entrepreneurs and executives who would put in millions. Mr. Spring said Mr. Madoff didn't want people to put in large amounts right away. "Bernie would tell me, 'Let them start small, and if they're happy the first year or two, they can put it more.' "
Mr. Spring says he never was paid a commission, but he received fees from a small investment-research firm that counted Mr. Madoff as a client; he declined to say how much he received. He said investors would always come to him asking to invest with Mr. Madoff. "I never solicited anyone," he says.
Mr. Spring says he never detected signs of impropriety with Mr. Madoff's investing, but he concedes that he may receive some blame from some investors. "I can understand where people who lost money are looking for a scapegoat," he says. "I'm heartbroken that so many people have been hurt so badly."
Mr. Madoff's main go-between in Palm Beach was Robert Jaffe, say several investors. Mr. Jaffe is the son-in-law of Carl Shapiro, the founder and former chairman of apparel company Kay Windsor Inc. and an early investor and close friend of Mr. Madoff's. Mr. Jaffe, a philanthropist in Palm Beach, attracted many investors from the Palm Beach Country Club in Palm Beach, Fla.
A spokeswoman for Mr. Jaffe's family said several family members were investors with Mr. Madoff and were "significantly adversely impacted" by recent events. There are no indications that Mr. Jaffe or Mr. Spring are implicated in the alleged fraud. Mr. Jaffe didn't return messages yesterday.
Other investors stand to lose through their investments with the likes of Fairfield Greenwich Group and Tremont Capital Management, funds of hedge funds that invested their cash with Mr. Madoff.
"Needless to say, our level of anger and dismay over the apparent betrayal by Mr. Madoff and his organization of his 14-year relationship with Tremont is immeasurable," Tremont told clients in a letter Friday.
Fairfield Greenwich said in a statement late Friday that it is trying to assess the extent of potential losses. The firm said that on Nov. 1, it had $7.5 billion in investments connected to Mr. Madoff's firm, slightly more than half of its total assets. Founding partner Jeffrey Tucker said the firm had no indication of any potential wrongdoing. "We are shocked an appalled by this news," he said.
Ms. Manzke, 60, of Maxam Capital Management, said she met Mr. Madoff through investors in the mid-1980s and introduced him to Tremont, where she was then chief executive. That introduction led to Tremont's decision to market Mr. Madoff as a money manager to its own investors, she adds.
In November, she says, Maxam asked to pull $30 million from Mr. Madoff, and he returned the money.
"He was a low-key guy," Ms. Manzke says. "He would say, 'Look, I'm a market-maker, and I don't want anyone to know I'm running money.' It was always for select people. He was always closed, he wasn't taking new money."
Several European investors were also apparent victims. Bramdean Alternatives in the U.K. said it had more than 9% of its portfolio invested in Madoff funds. Geneva-based Banque Benedict Hentsch, a white-glove private bank, said it is exposed for $47.5 million.
BNP Paribas, exposure, the extent of which is not clear, may stem from BNP's lending relationship with a fund of funds that was a big Madoff client, said people familiar with the matter. A BNP spokeswoman declined to comment.
Nomura and Neue Privat Bank, meanwhile, together marketed access to Fairfield Sentry Ltd., a fund overseen by Mr. Madoff and sold through Fairfield Greenwich. The shares offered by Neue Privat and Nomura were leveraged three times -- meaning $3 of borrowed money was added to every $1 of capital invested in order to magnify returns, greatly increasing the potential losses for those investors.
A Nomura spokesman declined to comment. A message left with Neue Privat was not returned.
The federal complaints against Mr. Madoff allege his fraudulent activities came through a secretive private wealth-management wing of Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities, the investment firm he founded in 1960. On Wall Street, his company was perhaps better known for its operations in market-making -- the business of serving as a middleman between buyers and sellers -- and proprietary trading.
Through those higher-profile parts of his operation, Mr. Madoff was a pioneer in trading New York Stock Exchange shares away from the exchange. He is a past chairman of the board of directors of the Nasdaq Stock Market as well as a member of the board of governors of the National Association of Securities Dealers and a member of numerous committees of the organization, according to his firm's Web site.
Mr. Madoff owns a home in Roslyn, N.Y., records show, and an elaborate beachfront home and grounds in Montauk on Long Island.
Mr. Madoff and his wife live in an apartment building on Manhattan's Upper East Side where property records list individual apartments valued at more than $5 million. One property database estimated the 2008 market value of Mr. Madoff's two-floor unit to be roughly $9 million. For years he has served as president of the building's co-op board, according to a tenant.
Tenants say he appeared down-to-earth, friendly and always greeted everyone by their first name.
Colleagues of Mr. Madoff said he was fair to those he dealt with and generous to charities including the Special Olympics. Mr. Madoff treated employees well and loved to take friends and colleagues on his 55-foot fishing boat, called Bull, said Frank Christensen, a retired New York Stock Exchange broker. "I really think very highly of him," said Mr. Christensen. "People make mistakes."
—Matthew Futterman, Jenny Strasburg, David Enrich, and Craig Karmin contributed to this article.
Write to Robert Frank at robert.frank@wsj.com, Peter Lattman at peter.lattman@wsj.com, Dionne Searcey at dionne.searcey@wsj.com and Aaron Lucchetti at aaron.lucchetti@wsj.com
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WTMendoza.com
Advanced Member
Username: Welcometomendoza

Post Number: 345
Registered: 7-2007


Posted on Monday, December 15, 2008 - 8:09 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

Had I seen the action today I would have added a second allocation to EMC. Regardless, I re-set the autosell to 6.5% from 5%. Also well in the green on the dollar short and getting some relif on the euro long. The Yen short continues to give me a wedgie, and I feel like that trade is firmly in the "I dont know what Im doing" department, which usally means I will take the loss just before the reversal lol.
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WTMendoza.com
Advanced Member
Username: Welcometomendoza

Post Number: 351
Registered: 7-2007


Posted on Wednesday, December 24, 2008 - 1:07 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

picked up more of NYSE-OIL at 20 and change this morning. Obscene. Happy holidays!
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Mark
Junior Member
Username: Lostintheandes

Post Number: 46
Registered: 10-2008
Posted on Friday, January 02, 2009 - 4:28 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

Well back to the grindstone. Hope everyone enjoyed their time off. The pre Obama rally is now on. Since early Nov when I outlined 13 high yield stocks the DOW is down about 2% while my motely collection is up almost 3%. As I posted before, once the Obama enthusiasium ends at his inauguration all bets are off. I had originally planned on selling into this rally but have been hedging with short RUT and so will continue this strategy as RUT is down 6% in this same time period(I didn't have RUT for the whole period). Therefore this strategy has yielded about 4.5% with more safety. My GS and COF shorts are losing ground but I think once the market realizes Obama has no magic potient they will drop again.

OIL-sell into this rally is my advice...I am still expecting it lower.

BA real estate-sell while you have the chance. We are headed for a large correction. (this should get Saints blood boiling)
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Living in Patagonia
Member
Username: Soulskier

Post Number: 71
Registered: 9-2008
Posted on Friday, January 02, 2009 - 5:53 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

Not buying a reversal of real estate in BA. How bout we bet a bottle of Malbec on it?
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Mark
Junior Member
Username: Lostintheandes

Post Number: 47
Registered: 10-2008
Posted on Friday, January 02, 2009 - 6:04 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

Its a deal but what is the timing and what is the def. of a reversal?
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Living in Patagonia
Member
Username: Soulskier

Post Number: 73
Registered: 9-2008
Posted on Saturday, January 03, 2009 - 10:36 am:   Edit PostPrint Post

Jan 1, 2010. Over/under 10% drop, information provided by ApartmentsBA. Winner chooses the bottle, loser opens it for winner.
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Mark
Junior Member
Username: Lostintheandes

Post Number: 48
Registered: 10-2008
Posted on Saturday, January 03, 2009 - 11:22 am:   Edit PostPrint Post

Ok , your on.
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Living in Patagonia
Member
Username: Soulskier

Post Number: 74
Registered: 9-2008
Posted on Saturday, January 03, 2009 - 11:34 am:   Edit PostPrint Post

Listo!
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WTMendoza.com
Advanced Member
Username: Welcometomendoza

Post Number: 352
Registered: 7-2007


Posted on Monday, January 05, 2009 - 7:55 am:   Edit PostPrint Post

Happy 2009 to all! We are back from high Andes cabins where, among other things, we did a 4 hour horseback trek with friends and all of our kids at 10,000 feet on Jan 1st - what a way to kick off the year !

Here is a pic from Jan 1
horsebackhighandes1jan2008


I think oil could be flat to mildly choppy for a while, I am unloading most of my position at cost since OIL is back for the moment and I didn't enjoy being underwater so long but I am keeping 1 allocation for longer term, because it seems impossible for it to go much lower than where it is..and I am sure the world will get back to it's nasty oil habits sooner or later.
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WTMendoza.com
Advanced Member
Username: Welcometomendoza

Post Number: 354
Registered: 7-2007


Posted on Monday, January 05, 2009 - 8:37 am:   Edit PostPrint Post

Despite 2008 being a financial horrific year for many, I continued working on a strategy I have been honing for the last several years of tape and chart analysis, combined with real world events, which made 2008 a great year for my evolving market analysis. In fact 2008 was easier for me than any year prior (since 1998 when I started following the markets) , to identify opportunities. That is kind of spooky considering what kind of year 2008 was, in the markets.

My portfolio year-end 2008 was up 26%, thanks to what felt like to me a more-of-an-understanding of projected flows in certain stocks and other trades during this chaotic time

Assuming my 2008 analysis is not an anomaly, which it could very well possibly be, I want to share simulated trades with anyone interested in 2009, so I have setup an $112,500 simulated portfolio online for 2009, viewable by anyone at:
http://vse.marketwatch.com/Game/Portfolio.aspx?a=P cK48HV9h2bZS+k5Mfiy+uHPrfy7PzHZsUOXnM/2O0Owq6hrqVa fmChlfse7GQrO&g=WTM2009

I am not making stock recommendations nor do I recommend anyone trades with real money copying my simulated trades. This is for entertainment purposes only, etc, etc, blah, blah. In fact, you could lose all of you money by copying these trades.

Because my main business occupies most of my time, I usually try to spend under an hour or so a day on this , and there are many days where I have no time to spend on it at all, but I still follow local and world news daily, and how it relates to the markets.

Allocation:
This is the most important component of my strategy. It’s the most important idea that any investor should pay attention to. This is a difficult topic. Human emotions can run wild sometimes so discipline is also a major component.

I strongly encourage reserving 3 allocations of capital for any position, and that at the very bare minimum your portfolio should not be able to be comprised fully of less than 5 positions. And these would be 5 positions that you scale a second or a third allocation into. Really just 5 positions using all your capital is still not proper allocation in my opinion, but it sure beats the pants off of basing you portfolio on 1 or 2 positions, which believe it or nor many people do.

In my opinion, ideally one should be able to reserve 3 allocations for any given position, and have the ability to have at least 15 positions if you had to use all your cash in your portfolio. But that requires an important amount of capital which we all don’t have.

I like 2 type of trades: Conviction trades and Tape trades.

Conviction trades for me are usually things like commodity, currency, or even maybe a stock which may have hit a perceived-by-me level low or high , and based on events and sentiment, smell like optys. I usually end up using 2 or 3 of the allocations, over time, for these kinds of trades because my entry is at times way off. I target at least 7% profits, in 5 to 60 trading days.

Tape trades are usually stocks or even commodity and metals when the tape/volume action reaches certain action points that I perceive. Usually 1 to 2 allocations is what I use here, but it sure gets tempting to add that 3rd. Profit targets run on avg 5% with a 1 to 10 trading day timeline.

When portfolios take short positions, they are granted cash injections from these short sales, and this cash can easily be emotionally figured into current buying power, causing dangerous leverage situations which can harm you greatly if you are not careful. I do not recommend tapping into this additional buying power unless you can/will back it up with other assets.

Some golden self-imposed rules I try to follow:
1) Allocate aprox 25% Conviction trades vs. 75 % Tape trades
2) Tape trades 5% average profit target between 1 and 10 trading days.
3) Conviction trades 7% or more target between 5 and 60 trading days
4) Allocated scaling into/out of positions using up to 3 allocations if needed.
5) Position entry Tuesdays through Thursdays
6) Long entry during mid-afternoon
7) 15 minutes market pulse/position review at 9:30am est
8) 30 minutes market pulse/position review/long entry at 3pm EST

Because of the “limit” (automatic) entries and exits I make, often times I will find me propelled out of a position while I am miles away from any computer screen and an Internet connection. This, I prefer.

This strategy I use involves much disciplined allocation and conservative profit taking. If stock seems like it will go to the moon, then it can go to the moon with out me. I will hang on for only a very short ride, or ride it in short stages if it keeps trending the way I like.

On the other hand, if a stock is at the perceived moon, I may very well start a short position in it. I have always believed the markets are heavily manipulated, and therefore trust nothing related to them, except the current action and sentiment in any given position. In fact, part of my strategy is try to identify what I believe is rampant pre-knowledge of future stock actions.

So here I have started an $112,500 amount for 2009 the simulated portfolio

Guidelines I will follow:
1) $7500 allocations for each trade
2) Each position averages 3 allocations at the most if needed. This equals $22,500 for any given position if all 3 allocations are used. If all 3 allocations are used at any time for open positions, this only allows 5 positions for the portfolio (5 x $22,500 = $112,500) at that time. Since in many cases all 3 allocations won’t be used, this could allow up to 15 different positions for the portfolio, which is much better for diversification purposes.
3) My positions will be usually from a list of aprox 40 stocks I monitor and try to get to know their behavior as much as possible. I also follow gold, oil, the USD, the EURO, and most recently the Yen.
4) My positions usually have high enough volume where if this was real money, it would not really alter the actual market of the stock in the moment I make an exit or entry.
5) My positions in this simulated portfolio may or may not be consistent with any real positions I have in the markets, but in reality they will be mostly consistent.
6) My positions are a mixture of shorts and longs, although I prefer long positions as they are easier for me to identify on the tape and charts.
7) I usually use limit (automatic) sells and limit (automatic) buys to enter and exit positions.
8) I don’t day trade and don’t recommend it.

Simulated short trading is easier because in real life short trading, you are often called on it, being forced to “buy to cover” earlier than what you had planned, and often times while you are underwater. Not to mention the availability of shares to actually short, by the average stock broker.

Friends of mine have bee trying to convince me to use trailing stop losses to extend that 5%, to 7%, to a much higher profit. I guess I have seen a stock get a 30% haircut overnight enough times , and that’s what scares me about trailing stop losses.

Often times, I will allow my position to go underwater more than 5%. This is probably a mistake but I still have not learned my lesson yet, usually because historically those positions come roaring back, especially after I have taken a loss, LOL.

I know this doesn’t sound very exciting, but if I am hitting over a 50% accuracy rate, then the portfolio by the end of 2009 could see a 20% or higher.

Again this is a simulated portfolio, these are not real trades.

The simulated portfolio can be viewed here at any time:
http://vse.marketwatch.com/Game/Portfolio.aspx?a=P cK48HV9h2bZS+k5Mfiy+uHPrfy7PzHZsUOXnM/2O0Owq6hrqVa fmChlfse7GQrO&g=WTM2009

I will try to post every trade here, but for any I forget to post, they will be viewable in the portfolio. Please let me know of any questions or comments.

Targeting an annual 20% may not be as good looking as the actual opportunities that may be in the marketplace at the moment, or what you have heard other traders making in the markets, but it beats conservative expectations, and at the same time doesn’t get too bold, wily, and wooly.

Cheers and the best of skill and luck in 2009 to people out there that are involved in the markets!
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WTMendoza.com
Advanced Member
Username: Welcometomendoza

Post Number: 355
Registered: 7-2007


Posted on Monday, January 05, 2009 - 9:48 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

wow speaking of tapes, this was quite a momentum day and at first glance it seems like the markets are poised to surge in the days to come -and yeah, watch out for the obama rally and the natural upswings that so many stocks will have after being pounded by redemptions for the last 2 months.

Mark, you mentioned short the Russell 2000 but the ETF of IWM has the same look and feel today of so many other stocks like MCD CAT, and others you mentioned. Thoughts?


It sure is nice to see the hint today of oil and gold futures possibly decoupling
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Mark
Member
Username: Lostintheandes

Post Number: 56
Registered: 10-2008
Posted on Tuesday, January 06, 2009 - 5:21 am:   Edit PostPrint Post

My thinking is both will go up or down but at different rates and without volitility. When coupled together and backtested in years of uncertainty it climbs with no volitility. For instance last year my basket of Dow Dogs fell 22% while the RUT fell 35% for a net 13% plus dividends on the high yield blue chips. And it was safe...compare this to the Dow.
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WTMendoza.com
Advanced Member
Username: Welcometomendoza

Post Number: 357
Registered: 7-2007


Posted on Thursday, January 08, 2009 - 9:30 am:   Edit PostPrint Post

sim port - bought 330 shares of NYSE-OIL using market order at the open - I expect a fill of aprox 22.70 or so. This will probably go down more, but I thought a first good allocation could be right here.
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WTMendoza.com
Advanced Member
Username: Welcometomendoza

Post Number: 358
Registered: 7-2007


Posted on Thursday, January 08, 2009 - 11:29 am:   Edit PostPrint Post

sim port - shorted 230 CRM at about 32.60 or so. I'm sure this one will put me upside down for a while, and will have to use more allocations higher up.
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Mark
Member
Username: Lostintheandes

Post Number: 57
Registered: 10-2008
Posted on Thursday, January 08, 2009 - 11:30 am:   Edit PostPrint Post

scared of oil...
heres my portfolio Sean in the 100k game on your site

http://vse.marketwatch.com/Game/Portfolio.aspx?a=i 3d7NKeUOM0AIybjgkcVFHCZI4YDayuRfpBNUXgYhSNjo9ah3+t 14oDxnGXDb/43&g=100GRANDSLAM
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WTMendoza.com
Advanced Member
Username: Welcometomendoza

Post Number: 359
Registered: 7-2007


Posted on Thursday, January 08, 2009 - 3:52 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

Cool port Mark - hey you aint gonna let a lil' black gold scare a Texas guy like you are ya?

sim port - adding
YHOO long
MSO long
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WTMendoza.com
Advanced Member
Username: Welcometomendoza

Post Number: 364
Registered: 7-2007


Posted on Tuesday, January 13, 2009 - 3:34 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

sim port:
I let YHOO go at its loss - my tape read/forumla was right but entry price was wrong - thats what happens when ya chase.

CRM & MSO I took respective profits on auto-sells

Added another allocation of NYSE-OIL
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Mark
Member
Username: Lostintheandes

Post Number: 59
Registered: 10-2008
Posted on Wednesday, January 14, 2009 - 7:57 am:   Edit PostPrint Post

I went short Yhoo in my on line portfolio and covered half at a good price. I was just testing my reflexes as I don't normally make trades based solely on the chart,
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Mark
Member
Username: Lostintheandes

Post Number: 60
Registered: 10-2008
Posted on Friday, January 16, 2009 - 4:14 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

Hola chicos,

Oil at about 35, next stop 30; but I won't be getting on the bus. Look for me when you pull into that 25$ per barrel station....I'm the first guy in line there.

GS moving back down after a ride on the "what can Obama do for me train". Like I said : the honeymoon will end soon enough.

My long DOW DOGS(my dogs, not the official dogs which include financials)/ short RUT strategy is making a few percent but boring.(boring is ok)

And last but not least, my call at the beginning of Nov. on COF is looking good. I said they were the most likely to suffer in the credit card crash-derby. So far down about 40%.

Hey aptsBA, you back yet, were your ears burning.

cheers,m
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Apartmentsba.com
Senior Member
Username: Saint

Post Number: 673
Registered: 5-2005


Posted on Friday, January 16, 2009 - 4:37 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

Hey Mark!

Long time. I've been out of the country and in serious catch up mode with thousands of emails to catch up on. I haven't been trading at all. I will catch up on the board in the next few weeks when I have some time.

Fatherhood also really changes your priorities.

Remember what I said about Citigroup and pretty much the entire financial sector. I've been saying it for a long time now and I will continue to say it. They are "toxic waste" and pretty much junk. Without the government's bail outs they would pretty much be insolvent. Look at my posts and I think you will see all my models on Citigroup were spot on target. Just junk.

You couldn't pay me to go long on any financials now. I said it before and I'll say it again. It's smoke and mirrors.

I hope everyone had a great Christmas and has a great new year. 2009 will be a VERY challenging year for everyone. My forecast on unemployment figures is turning out to be correct as well.

What a mess!
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Mark
Member
Username: Lostintheandes

Post Number: 62
Registered: 10-2008
Posted on Saturday, January 17, 2009 - 10:02 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

Hola all,
I said the "Yeah Obama is here" bull market would last until his inauguration. Looks like I was off by a week. Look for a steady decline for the beginning of the year but be ready to jump in around DOW 7K or less. And por favor Mike...save the financials are toxic speech unless you jump in short with me. Its easy to post diatribes....much harder to put dollars on your convictions.
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Apartmentsba.com
Senior Member
Username: Saint

Post Number: 679
Registered: 5-2005


Posted on Sunday, January 18, 2009 - 2:46 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

Mark,

Ha, ha. I stick with my call on financials. There will be some winners at the end of the story but it's only the never ending bailouts that are holding the system together at this point.

As far as diatribes, go back and read the posts from the past 2 years. I'm not trying to play any "Monday morning quarterback" here. I forecasted the situation we are in last year. When Bernanke and Paulson were telling everyone "the light is at the end of the tunnel" and other non-sense I was the one telling you that we would be in the situation we are in.

I'm certainly not gloating because a serious recession doesn't do anyone any good. I'm just saying I'm still not optimistic on the financial sector yet. And remember what I've been posting about for the past year. That the market simply can't have a sustaining long-lasting turn around without the financial sector participating.

No, I'm done shorting stocks. Even the financials. I maintain my opinion the really easy money shorting them has been made. Although that isn't to say you can't make more shorting them. Good luck on your plays.
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Mark
Member
Username: Lostintheandes

Post Number: 63
Registered: 10-2008
Posted on Sunday, January 18, 2009 - 8:51 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

Bravo AptBA,
I can't back you into a corner after your Vacation...your too cool. I still maintain if an issue is worth talking about, and you have an intelligent position, there is money to be made or you did not have an intelligent position.
cheers
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Eric Baeder
New member
Username: Doggieboy

Post Number: 14
Registered: 7-2006
Posted on Monday, January 19, 2009 - 12:36 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

Roberto:

You had expressed an interest in CRESY. I have attached a link to a Motley Fools page which talks about CRESY and Argentina which you may be interested in. I own a bit of CRESY and am looking to get more oil, agriculture and maybe metal stocks. Anyone sense that I'm worried about inflation? If anyone here has an opinion on specific stocks especially in those sectors, I would be interested in your view.

http://www.fool.com/investing/international/2009/0 1/15/greentechs-future-and-one-heckuva-cheap-stock .aspx

Thanks,

E
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Mark
Member
Username: Lostintheandes

Post Number: 66
Registered: 10-2008
Posted on Tuesday, January 20, 2009 - 4:21 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

Another good day for financial shorts....and check out this action. A day of fear like to day is what my long Dow dogs/short RUT was designed for. My list of DOW components with dividends dropped about 3% while the RUT dropped 7% putting in a combined gain of 4% with limited risk.

cheers
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Apartmentsba.com
Senior Member
Username: Saint

Post Number: 685
Registered: 5-2005


Posted on Tuesday, January 20, 2009 - 4:37 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

Mark,

Way to play the shorting of the financials. I haven't traded in a while since before vacation. I'm waiting for the market to bottom. On days like today I wish I was still short financials. Oh well.

Market is just ugly and financials are still junk. Amazing to see the blood bath on BAC.

Sean - I bet you sure are glad you sold off that Citgroup stock you bought. My opinion on Citigroup hasn't changed and remember what I posted last month. Even with the bail out I said that I saw C no different than AIG, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac or the other insolvent companies that the US government bailed out. There is simply too much toxic waste on the books.
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Mark
Member
Username: Lostintheandes

Post Number: 67
Registered: 10-2008
Posted on Tuesday, January 20, 2009 - 7:24 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

When is that bottom...I'm saying we will head South of DOW 7K but I doubt we will see 6K. And I think it will be early this year. At some point I will jettison my RUT short and just ride my dogs but I'm not sure when , just not now in spite of the gain(on the short side) today.
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Apartmentsba.com
Senior Member
Username: Saint

Post Number: 686
Registered: 5-2005


Posted on Tuesday, January 20, 2009 - 8:05 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

When is the bottom? I don't think anyone is for sure but I've been saying for a while we haven't hit it yet and I still don't think we have hit rock bottom. Still too many problems on the horizon and I don't think the market has fully priced in a scenario of USA unemployment at 10% which is what I think it could hit when all is said and done.

Yes, I think we could see sub 7,000 on the Dow. I doubt we hit 6,000 but much just depends on the financials. I've been saying for a while now that the stock market can NOT have any SUSTAINABLE and long-lasting rally without the financial sector participating and I stand by that. The market just can't rally long-term without the financials and we all know the story on the financial sector. It's toxic. Most banks need to be recapitalized. Without the bail outs many would be insolvent. It's just ugly.

Who would have thought Citigroup would be in the $2's?? BAC at the $5 level and probably headed lower.

It will take years and years and years to hit new highs. Let's face it. The mess in the banking sector isn't just limited to the USA but it's a mess around the world.

And another thing people neglect to realize is that much of the market was a bubble in the first place. The same principles that allowed the USA housing market to keep going up on borrowed money with 0% down, and shady sub-prime took the stock market up. Think about it. Think about all the people on margin that took the market up. Think about all these (now defunct) investment banks that were leveraging and buying everything under the sun with their 35 X margin. Look at the Madoff's of the world and other hedge funds that were leveraging in some cases 50 X 1 margin.

In short, I don't think there is anything to be too optimistic about for at least the first half of 2009 and probably the second half either. Unemployment should continue to deteriorate further in both the USA and also Europe.

I've said before that Obama is a pretty intelligent guy but I don't think he will have all the answers and might even regret taking on this task. You could have the best captain in the world that has tons of experience and leadership on the high seas but if a big ship is headed towards an iceberg no amount of wit and intelligence and skill can right it. You just know that your ship will hit the iceberg and hope for the best.

That's kind of how I look at things right now. I don't think there is anything to be optimistic about near-term and I still say at the end of the story those holding cash and that are non-leveraged are going to be in a good position to go on a spending spree and pick up assets for bargain prices from those desperate to sell. Whether it be stocks/bonds/real estate/jewelry/companies/ you name it.

Good luck all.
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Mark
Member
Username: Lostintheandes

Post Number: 68
Registered: 10-2008
Posted on Tuesday, January 20, 2009 - 8:45 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

One point I will argue is that the market will lead the way. One day you will look up and you'll say.."darn that was the bottom 2 months ago and we are up 2000 points." and you'll say "but employment is terrible, and the economy sucks" but Mr Market knows better and suddenly everything is back on track....only your sitting there on all your cash saying "what happened". It has happened too many times before for it not to be the case now so thats why I am pushing myself into a plan of action rather than the complacency I read into your post.

respectfully submitted, m
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Apartmentsba.com
Senior Member
Username: Saint

Post Number: 687
Registered: 5-2005


Posted on Wednesday, January 21, 2009 - 9:52 am:   Edit PostPrint Post

Mark,

No doubt it's very difficult to catch the absolute bottoms of stocks (or any other investments for that matter). It's hard to time the market. However, I think it's been wise for people to have taken money off the table when they could. When we hit the bottom in November and then had the sucker's rally the smart money sold off and took profits and now we will most likely hit another low. So, yes, you can look up and see the market up 1,000 or 2,000 points in a short time but you have to look at the rationale to how the sucker's rally began.

Now if I saw a rally with sustainable reasons behind it such as the banking problems getting solved, credit expanding instead of continually contracting as I said last year it would be, nations not being forced into nationalizing their banks, corporate profits or forecasts for profits increasing instead of decreasing, unemployment #'s drastically getting better then yes I would agree with you. We are seeing quite the opposite of those things. Most of these things have consistently over time gotten worse.

But again, I agree with you that it's impossible to time the bottoms.

Government bail outs to hold the fragile financial system and banking system together is not really a realistic reason to rally. I think it makes sense to allocate in slowly and probably buying in on big down days like yesterday isn't a bad idea either if you are investing for the long-term in index funds or quality companies that will be around for the long term.

I don't look at it necessarily as complacency per se. I just think that until I see the financial sector stabilize and a long lasting solution I'm in no hurry to go "all in". We need to see a lasting and REAL solution in the banking sector globally before anyone should be too optimistic. Just my 2 cents.
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Mark
Member
Username: Lostintheandes

Post Number: 69
Registered: 10-2008
Posted on Wednesday, January 21, 2009 - 11:19 am:   Edit PostPrint Post

I like the allocating in idea because I think by the time we see the financials problem solved it will be too late as the market will have started up in the previouse quarter. I may use the 7k area to start loading up and jettison the Shorts as we approach 6K. What do you think? Mark
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Apartmentsba.com
Senior Member
Username: Saint

Post Number: 688
Registered: 5-2005


Posted on Wednesday, January 21, 2009 - 3:31 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

Mark,

Yes, I think that allocating in on big down days isn't a bad idea. The volatility is so extreme but many big down days are followed by big up days like yesterday/today. I haven't traded before vacation as I'm STILL catching up on emails from when I was gone but traders are making a mint on this volatility over the past year.

You make a good point about it being hard to catch the absolute bottom but I'm not in any hurry as long as there remains the potential of yet more problems with the financial and banking system in such flux.

Right now the Central bank is printing mad money trying to print their way out of this mess. They will print as much as they need to but that will have it's own consequences later. Yes, I look at the 7,000 area as well. I don't think we have hitten rock bottom yet. I still think the market hasn't priced in all the unemployment yet. I know a few really bright people that lost their jobs and still looking. A few of them are Ivy League graduates.

Still, there is LOTS of money on the sidelines. Lots of smart money cashed out last year and sitting on a pile of cash. Also, lots of mom and pops and hedge funds cashed out a while back and waiting to get back in but they are too scared now. You have a good point that the money will eventually go back to work. However, I think many people will never trust "paper" the same way as before.

I also think the Madoff thing is bigger than even what he initially claimed to have pulled off. Today I sat in a meeting in my office with one of my very good clients. One of his friends personally lost $1.2 BILLION with Madoff and another one tens of millions of dollars. A few of my clients lost money with Madoff but no one near what I heard today. I mean think about it. Just ONE guy losing $1.2 billion in this ponzi scheme.

I certainly hope for the sake of all those retiring soon the market doesn't hit 6,000. It's already fallen so far so fast. But the big question is it all depends on the financial sector and how much further that deteriorates. Also, on the expanding of credit to individuals and businesses which desperately need it to survive.

This one will be for the history books! Best.
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AMARAGGI
New member
Username: Amar

Post Number: 24
Registered: 12-2006
Posted on Wednesday, January 21, 2009 - 7:06 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

It is really amazing to have people able to earn a fortune ready to delegate more than one billion of dollars to anybody. It looks unbelivable and terribly naïve from people who are supposed to be just the opposite. So in a sense it is a moral tale since, if I understand well, this billion plus has been used to pay less wealthy people in the same system. The pity is that some charitable fundations have lost their money also. This is gangsterism on another scale than the guy who steals your swatch watch in Bs As.
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Apartmentsba.com
Senior Member
Username: Saint

Post Number: 689
Registered: 5-2005


Posted on Wednesday, January 21, 2009 - 8:49 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

Amaraggi,

I think you have to keep in mind it's all relative. $1 BILLION is a LOT of money no matter how you look at it but it's relative. What you consider a fortune some hedge funds consider chump change. $100,000 to you might seem like $10 million to someone that is very poor. It's all relative but I do say now more than ever we hear about Billion dollar this and billion dollar that. Amazing people talk about a billion dollar loss these days and it's almost like we should be used to it.

As far as naive.... it may seem naive to the everyday person but this guy pulled quite a number on established funds and banks and firms. Use the example below of Santander bank in Spain that got suckered then they went out and pitched and marketed these funds to even retired teachers. We are NOT talking about JUST the ultra rich that got scammed here.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive &sid=a4qT09KQbL6E

So many funds of funds of funds. So many layers. In the end it seems no one really knew what they were invested in. Another real life reason I like tangible, real assets.

The one thing that all the people so far that I talked to had in common (besides they were affluent) was they were all Jewish. It seems this Madoff really conned him and used that angle of it.

It's sad what Madoff did especially because he conned so many charitible trusts and foundations that are closed now. Some of them were doing so much good. This guy should be sitting in jail not in home confinement.
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Mark
Member
Username: Lostintheandes

Post Number: 72
Registered: 10-2008
Posted on Friday, January 23, 2009 - 2:04 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

COF posts a loss and now analysists downgrade it. If they had just read my posts they wouldn't have had to wait for yesterdays news. I am amazed the experts can't see what I learned in a half day of due diligence. COF is a credit provider..not a brand issuer such as Visa or Master card. And as such is not positioned well for a nation of people who are
1. weaning themselves from credit
2. being weaned from credit because of RE values.
3. there businesses suffering due to lousy economy
4. or lost their job in the highest unemployment in recent history

Its not rocket science but somehow wall street is still wearing blinders,

.....I am covering half my short position and will let the rest ride. cheers
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WTMendoza.com
Advanced Member
Username: Welcometomendoza

Post Number: 366
Registered: 7-2007


Posted on Monday, January 26, 2009 - 5:23 am:   Edit PostPrint Post

Hey guys, I am buried deep in projects with our great staff for the time being but surfacing little by little over the days and weeks to come - I am also in the middle of a journey to the USA with the wife and kids - the first time I will be there in 3-1/2 years - our boys (11 and 15) are due for some super productive reverse culture shock and by the time we get back to Mendoza they will be that much for the better I truly believe. I agree with Mike that no matter what happens in the USA, it still is a great place and probably will be at least throughout our life time. Argentina still is right up there at the top of my list also, just different dynamics and timing. We are flying into SoCal in a few days and will continue with the journey as we visit friends and family while driving to St. Louis, MO over the course of a week or so, and then to help my very sick aging parents in Missouri, where hopefully we and our kids will help revitalize them also.

At the moment I am in Junin (my wife's home town) just 3 hours outside BA along route 7 in the middle of the Pampas and this drought has markedly impacted things here in the heart and soul of agriculture in Argentina - how brutal! and how much the pendulum swings in just 6 months or so, no?

I regret not being able to fully participate in this historic marketplace time fully but will be back soon! overall great calls and info as usual by people here on this board and nearby boards ...I read each and every post - cheers
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Mark
Member
Username: Lostintheandes

Post Number: 73
Registered: 10-2008
Posted on Monday, January 26, 2009 - 6:07 am:   Edit PostPrint Post

Have fun but take cash...I'm not sure if they still take credit cards in the US
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Apartmentsba.com
Senior Member
Username: Saint

Post Number: 690
Registered: 5-2005


Posted on Monday, January 26, 2009 - 7:42 am:   Edit PostPrint Post

Sean,

Have a safe and great trip. 3.5 years? Wow! I assumed you went a few times a year. Due to tax reasons I can only spend 30 days a year in the USA but I spend each and every one of those 30 days per year. Yeah, the USA is still a wonderful country and your kids will enjoy it.

I was just in Southern California and really enjoyed it and we're heading back there for 2 weeks for another vacation in March to La Jolla.

Yep. Things can change quickly in just a short amount of time. Amazing to see the drastic changes over the past several months but this was brewing up for years.

Have a great trip.
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Roberto
Board Administrator
Username: Admin

Post Number: 1815
Registered: 12-2004
Posted on Monday, January 26, 2009 - 10:01 am:   Edit PostPrint Post

Sean, wishing you a great trip with the family!
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WTMendoza.com
Advanced Member
Username: Welcometomendoza

Post Number: 367
Registered: 7-2007


Posted on Wednesday, January 28, 2009 - 7:09 am:   Edit PostPrint Post

Thanks Guys, and yeah Mike it's not cheap to travel with wife and kids on long flights:-), so 3-1/2 years snuck by fast, especially when ya are having fun. We will be having scrambled egs and tomatoes in La Jolla Saturday morning. I am in sitting in aa BA Apartment typing this and really appreciating Mendoza right about now:-), although there is no doubt if I was a single dude, I would be in this city 4 times more than I normally am:-)

Mark, those oil numbers are quite amazing, how the pendulum swings! lets see what happens...
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Living in Patagonia
Member
Username: Soulskier

Post Number: 97
Registered: 9-2008
Posted on Wednesday, January 28, 2009 - 2:43 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

WTM, have a really spicy Mexican feast for me in SD.
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Mark
Member
Username: Lostintheandes

Post Number: 75
Registered: 10-2008
Posted on Thursday, January 29, 2009 - 6:24 am:   Edit PostPrint Post

I have been touting 13 dividend paying DOW components as the stocks I see to lead the way out of the bear market. (I'm not saying when that is:Simply that these are the stocks to own when that happens.) One of them ,PFE, recently cut its dividend after announcing plans to buy a competitor. I will be reviewing it over the next day or two to determine if it meets my criteria of "dividend paying". Of course opinions are solicited. Mark
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Apartmentsba.com
Senior Member
Username: Saint

Post Number: 691
Registered: 5-2005


Posted on Thursday, January 29, 2009 - 10:52 am:   Edit PostPrint Post

Mark,

I think that many companies will be forced to cut or eliminate altogether their dividends for 2009. It's ugly. Many companies will have no choice but to get rid of them or seriously cut them.

I still think lots of problems on the horizon. First trade today in a while. Bought 10,000 shares of OIL near $19 but already have a GTC limit to dump them at $20. Oil prices should be volatile but you may be right that over the short term they could fall but prices will probably be volatile with the fear in the market.

Best.
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Apartmentsba.com
Senior Member
Username: Saint

Post Number: 694
Registered: 5-2005


Posted on Thursday, January 29, 2009 - 3:16 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

Mark,

I couldn't resist. I just dumped the OIL at $19.50 for the quick $5k profit. Not bad for a few hours. I really think this is the market where you take gains when you can. I was going to wait for $20 but I'll take the guaranteed gains any day of the week.

It will be interesting to see what happens to crude prices as this worldwide recession continues.
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Mark
Member
Username: Lostintheandes

Post Number: 76
Registered: 10-2008
Posted on Thursday, January 29, 2009 - 4:43 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

Watch as we get close to futures expiration date. With a commodity like oil someone has to take delivery(this is different than with stocks), so when there is very little available storage out there the price drops. Look at OILs January chart and then guess the drop dead date. This only appies when there is a shortage of storage so this is rare and can be overshadowed by other events; for instance if opec curtails pumping or percieved demand were to suddenly increase. The latter is not likely. Congrats on your call. If we get much of a bounce back up in Feb I will be tempted to jump in short. cheers
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Apartmentsba.com
Senior Member
Username: Saint

Post Number: 700
Registered: 5-2005


Posted on Monday, February 02, 2009 - 2:46 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

Mark,

Yes, these funds aren't just crude prices but options as well are involved. Crude is bouncing around today. I just picked up a bunch of UCO at $9.70. I hope to dump it later this week or next week as Crude bounces around. I still think in this market the best thing is to take profits off the table trading around.

I still repeat what I've said for over a year now. The market can't have a fundamental turn around without the financial sector participating and the financials are still toxic waste. Let's see what Obama does but no easy solutions in that area.
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WTMendoza.com
Advanced Member
Username: Welcometomendoza

Post Number: 368
Registered: 7-2007


Posted on Tuesday, February 03, 2009 - 10:15 am:   Edit PostPrint Post

Sitting in a San Diego Starbucks watching no less than 8 SUV's and luxury cars lined up at the drive through. I have a feeling the view will change slightly as we head east into Arizona this morning and more east over the next few days. Although ya never know till ya see it.

San Diego has a huge money base so I am not surprised to see on the surface that things are percolating along. It is amazing though, to see housing and gasoline cheaper than 3-1/2 years ago – crazy!

Despite all the econ chaos these days, I have a feeling that 2009 will be a year of upside surprises in some sectors, so many entities are hoarding their cash, just waiting for deployment. So many digital dollars are being generated, like gun powder. Wow.

Dividends, anything goes these days so buying for the dividend could be risky in some cases.

Gold, here’s some opty to lighten up for anybody feeling nervous about it, and of course others think this is the beginning of the next surge. I still think it’s a farce. We will see.

Mark, would you really short C at these levels with real money?

Oil futures – Mark, good stuff your comments, I am looking forward to seeing how it plays out.

Mike, have you seen these ads in USA today for you to “buy bad loans from your kitchen table with no money down’? CRAZY

Been enjoying dog beach in Del Mar (see pic taken 2 day ago below for our little Lucky who is from San Diego but now barks Argentina Spanish) , Coronado Island, La Jolla, Point Loma, In N’ Out burger, fish tacos, carne asado burritos, and a slew of special deal pricing at fast food restaurants to our kids delight. But yesterday we headed to WalMart and stocked up on normal groceries and a cooler for the road trip. Road goal for the day: Gallup, New Mexico (yikes!)

Not missing Mendoza just completely yet, and feeling very good about what we are doing with the kids and the family, and watching in fascination as our kids reverse culture shock back into the USA for a while – this is so good for them, and they actually still speak the language. Our oldest is eyeballing college somewhere in SoCal but insists on finishing high school in Mendoza. Our youngest is quite upset about missing Boca-River in Mendoza last Sunday, but the Super Bowl made up for that –what a game!

By this time next week I should be getting back into action on this board, and looking forward to it, in freezing-butt cold St. Louis.


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Apartmentsba.com
Senior Member
Username: Saint

Post Number: 702
Registered: 5-2005


Posted on Tuesday, February 03, 2009 - 10:29 am:   Edit PostPrint Post

Sean,

Yep. I've seen those ads. I always wonder if there is anyone actually buying them?? Too funny.

Glad you are enjoying the USA. I myself am heading back to California for vacation in less than a month. I'm also headed to San Diego (La Jolla). Had a great time last trip.

I guess one of the only good things about the recession is airfare has come way way down. Last year it was expensive to go to California with not many opportunities to upgrade to first/business at the last minute. Now they have coach fares to San Diego for like $899 (with tax) and plenty of business class seats. In fact my last trip for Christmas business and first class were very empty which is the first time in a long time I've seen that.

We're also headed to Las Vegas next month so it will be interesting to see how the mood is there with things so tough. I haven't been there in over 8 years so I'm sure lots and lots has changed there. Not sure if I'll recognize much.

Have a fun and safe trip. Enjoy the USA.
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Apartmentsba.com
Senior Member
Username: Saint

Post Number: 703
Registered: 5-2005


Posted on Tuesday, February 03, 2009 - 11:24 am:   Edit PostPrint Post

Just dumped my UCO from yesterday on this nice little pop.
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Apartmentsba.com
Senior Member
Username: Saint

Post Number: 704
Registered: 5-2005


Posted on Tuesday, February 03, 2009 - 4:27 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

Glad I dumped UCO on the pop today. Crude should bounce around here. Long term I think prices will definitely go up but short-term with this wicked recession they can fall lower but I've been having fun trading oil related stocks. The thing with them is to sell every pop.

I HATE the financials as those that follow this board know but I can't bring myself to short most financials at these levels. Not to say they could fall more (as many of them are essentially insolvent and probably should be nationalized) but no telling what the plunge protection team will do so I can't short them here.

More fun jumping in and out of crude related stocks right now.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&si d=axMf5cDji_yE&refer=home#

Feb. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fell to a two-week low on speculation a deepening economic contraction in the U.S., the world’s biggest energy consumer, will cause the slump in fuel demand to worsen.

Crude fell as much as 4 percent before a report later today by the Institute of Supply Management forecast to show U.S. manufacturing shrank in January at the fastest pace in 28 years. The United Steelworkers union is considering strike actions that may affect 8.7 percent of U.S. refinery capacity. The IEA is likely to revise down its oil demand estimates for this year, the agency executive director said.

“It’s weak demand,” said Eugen Weinberg, a Commerzbank AG analyst in Frankfurt. “Availability of crude will be higher should the workers walk out. The buildups should continue and maybe even accelerate.”

Crude oil for March delivery fell as much as $1.67, or 4 percent, to $40.01 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. That’s the lowest since Jan. 20. Oil was at $40.82 a barrel at 1:52 p.m. London time.

New York futures traded at a discount of $4.37 a barrel to Brent crude contracts in London because of excess supplies at Cushing, Oklahoma, the U.S. storage hub. Brent crude oil for March settlement fell as much as $1.48, or 3.2 percent, to $44.40 a barrel on London’s ICE Futures Europe exchange.

New York futures fell 10 percent last week and are down 73 percent from the record $147.27 a barrel on July 11. Still, prices have rebounded from a four-year low of $32.40 reached Dec. 19 as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries implements a record supply reduction.

Bearish Backdrop

“The bearish macro backdrop should cap any rallies above $50,” said Edward Meir, an analyst at MF Global Ltd. in Connecticut. “The OPEC cutbacks seem to have stopped, at least for now, the worst of the recent downward spiral. Of the two variables, the macro element is by far the more important.”

The International Energy Agency will probably deepen its forecast for the decline in oil demand in 2009, executive director Nobuo Tanaka said today in The Hague.

On Jan. 16, the IEA forecast demand will shrink 0.6 percent to 85.3 million barrels a day, the first two-year contraction since 1983. The agency’s next report is due on Feb. 11.

The Institute of Supply Management factory index probably dropped to 32.5 last month from 32.9 in December, according to a Bloomberg News survey. Readings below 50 signal contraction. U.S. gross domestic product contracted at a 3.8 percent annual pace in the fourth quarter.

United Steelworkers

The United Steelworkers union didn’t receive any new proposals from Royal Dutch Shell Plc yesterday, union spokeswoman Lynne Baker said in an e-mail.

“Both parties continue to discuss bargaining issues,” she said, without giving details.

The negotiations cover workers at 86 plants including operations owned by Exxon Mobil Corp., Valero Energy Corp., BP Plc and Chevron Corp. and Shell. The contract extension was agreed on late yesterday in Austin, Texas, where the talks started Jan. 20.

Hedge-fund managers and other large speculators increased their net-long position in New York crude-oil futures in the week ended Jan. 27, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data.

Speculative long positions, or bets prices will rise, outnumbered short positions by 51,652 contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the Washington-based commission said in its Commitments of Traders report. Net-long positions rose by 5,518 contracts, or 12 percent, from a week earlier.
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Mark
Member
Username: Lostintheandes

Post Number: 83
Registered: 10-2008
Posted on Tuesday, February 03, 2009 - 4:38 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

Ha ha Sean,
Didn't know you were watching...no C is not tradeble with the fed involved. Market Psychology doesn't apply to C. I am playing with that portfolio. My real port I have outlined here excrpt for the fact that I am still mostly cash,
Long 13 high div. Dow
Short RUT equal amount
short cof
short gs
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Living in Patagonia
Intermediate Member
Username: Soulskier

Post Number: 105
Registered: 9-2008
Posted on Tuesday, February 03, 2009 - 7:22 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

Sean, I would die for a double double with grilled onions and a vanilla shake right about now!
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Apartmentsba.com
Senior Member
Username: Saint

Post Number: 707
Registered: 5-2005


Posted on Friday, February 06, 2009 - 9:12 am:   Edit PostPrint Post

Mark I agree with you that C is not really tradable at this point with the government intervention and also the possibility of nationalization. I'm staying away from financials now.

I just bought a ton of UCO pre-market at $9.15. Looking to dump it on a quick pop.
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Apartmentsba.com
Senior Member
Username: Saint

Post Number: 709
Registered: 5-2005


Posted on Friday, February 06, 2009 - 2:13 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

There's the pop I was looking for. Just dumped all my UCO (at $10.50). I love trading that thing.... Have a good weekend all.
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Mark
Member
Username: Lostintheandes

Post Number: 84
Registered: 10-2008
Posted on Sunday, February 08, 2009 - 10:18 am:   Edit PostPrint Post

good one Apts..
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Apartmentsba.com
Senior Member
Username: Saint

Post Number: 710
Registered: 5-2005


Posted on Sunday, February 08, 2009 - 5:56 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

Hey Mark,

Yep. There were a lot of us waiting for that quick pop on Friday. Look at the daily chart from Friday. Look how fast it sold off once it hit $10.84. LOTS of big money shorted the heck out of it. I'll try to repeat that play this week. Still should be lots and lots of volatility. The thing I'm doing on UCO and other oil plays is taking the quick gains. Even if it's just a few minutes or hours after I bought it.

Market wants so badly to rally and looking for any excuse but the reality tells us that there are some REAL problems around the world and printing money and "stimulus packages" will only last so long. I think people are starting to understand the "Emperor" has "no clothes on". Congress and Senate pleaded with the American people to bail out banks with TARP only to see billions and billions of that go out in bonuses. What a sham.

Now they are pleading for more money. The beat goes on....
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Apartmentsba.com
Senior Member
Username: Saint

Post Number: 715
Registered: 5-2005


Posted on Tuesday, February 10, 2009 - 11:15 am:   Edit PostPrint Post

Jumped back in UCO at $9.29. Looking to dump on a pop up.
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Mark
Member
Username: Lostintheandes

Post Number: 85
Registered: 10-2008
Posted on Tuesday, February 10, 2009 - 4:34 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

Hope you covered,, don't forget what I said about storage issues. Oil is headed lower into options expiration.
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Apartmentsba.com
Senior Member
Username: Saint

Post Number: 717
Registered: 5-2005


Posted on Tuesday, February 10, 2009 - 4:58 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

Hey Mark. I'm trading crude like crazy. I don't use UCO for long term positioning or any of the ETF's really. They are great for daytrading but very volatile. Pro Shares has done a great job of adding coverage of many types of sectors and commodities. I ended up on the day trading UCO but I'm still holding some shares.

I agree with you crude can go lower in the short term but the world will still have a thirst for oil and it will always have a value. I see the price of crude much higher a year from now then at these levels.

UCO and it's inverse twin (SCO) isn't for everyone but for active daytraders the volatility is great. Same for FAZ and FAS although not for the faint of heart as they can have daily swings of 25% both ways. Many days UCO swings 10% in a single day.

Ugly day in the markets. I still say Dow hits a new low. Just too many problems out there and no real solutions.
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WTMendoza.com
Advanced Member
Username: Welcometomendoza

Post Number: 370
Registered: 7-2007


Posted on Wednesday, February 11, 2009 - 12:42 am:   Edit PostPrint Post

Good stuff Mark and Mike - I get the feeling we will see a mid-term bottom coming up in the next few trading days, and will deploy a third allocation of NYSE-OIL in the sim port and also open a mid-term single allocation position in UCO
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Apartmentsba.com
Senior Member
Username: Saint

Post Number: 719
Registered: 5-2005


Posted on Wednesday, February 11, 2009 - 8:59 am:   Edit PostPrint Post

Welcome back Sean. Like Mark I think oil can go lower here in the short term. I don't think this financial mess is over by a long shot and will take time to work out. Still lots of questions need to be answered and still billions upon billions of more dollars in losses coming ahead by the banks and financial institutions. There is no easy and quick way out of this mess. It's going to take time to unwind.

It's like trying to stop a forest fire with a garden hose. It just can't be done. It will take time. Like I've been saying the past 2 years. The market can't rally long-term without the financial sector leading the way. Until I see that happening I'll stay in cash or just do short term trading.

The volatility over the past year has been incredible.
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WTMendoza.com
Advanced Member
Username: Welcometomendoza

Post Number: 377
Registered: 7-2007


Posted on Thursday, February 12, 2009 - 10:29 am:   Edit PostPrint Post

sim port = adding third and final allocation on NYSE-OIL at aprox 16.70 and opening single allocation on UCO at 7.90 or so

I don't recommend making one's portfolio having 25% of stuff directly related to crude, nor for that matter 25% directly related to any specific thing, but this is just to historic and almost a no brainer, but then again, we have been surprised before.
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Apartmentsba.com
Senior Member
Username: Saint

Post Number: 722
Registered: 5-2005


Posted on Thursday, February 12, 2009 - 2:11 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

Hey WTM,

I added some more UCO at $7.80 today. Been trading it around quite a bit but holding some from today and the other day. I agree with Mark that oil can sink a bit more but I still think there will be some pops on it and volatility. It's clear big money is manipulating oil futures. They took it up fast and hard. Took it down fast and hard and I think short term it can fall some more but I still think longer term it will be higher than at today's levels.

ETF's aren't the best stocks to hold longer term but they are good if you like volatility. I agree with you not to go too heavy on crude because you never know. I also advise to stay away from margin and not get overleveraged. It's amazing even in this market some are still overleveraged with margin. A bad day and they are getting margined out. Good luck.
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WTMendoza.com
Advanced Member
Username: Welcometomendoza

Post Number: 379
Registered: 7-2007


Posted on Thursday, February 12, 2009 - 9:33 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

Yeah Mike, margin is the worst eenemy of someone who has even remote problems with self discipline.

A chart reading trader wouldn't touch crude with a 10 foot pole right now at buying crude oil here..it just broke through the floor of the bottom of the recent trading range and the candles are bright cherry red....yowsa....but no pain no gain....
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Apartmentsba.com
Senior Member
Username: Saint

Post Number: 723
Registered: 5-2005


Posted on Friday, February 13, 2009 - 8:44 am:   Edit PostPrint Post

Yeah.. Margin can be used responsibly but the problem is many don't use it responsibly and the volatility kills them. You must be VERY disciplined and even then it can kill you.

You're right on the chart readers. I do think it can fall some more in the short term. But then again, I don't really put too much faith into chart readers either. Big money has really manipulated crude prices. Yes, the recession definitely has caused the price to come down but IMHO a good bit of it is simply big money trading and shorting. It was the same on the way up then on the way down.

I don't use margin and certainly oil won't stay at these depressed levels long term. There will be pops as well. For trading I actually like this volatility. It was the same in the financial sector. I remember while I was short selling Lehman Bros (LEH) there were some days it would pop up on BS news. It just gave me more of an opportunity to short more.

Oil should be volatile. 2009 will be ugly no doubt about it but hopefully things start to show a turn around towards the end of the year. I do think the Naz and Dow can hit new lows and waiting for that before I start true long term positions again. Still lots of cash on the sidelines.
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WTMendoza.com
Advanced Member
Username: Welcometomendoza

Post Number: 382
Registered: 7-2007


Posted on Sunday, February 15, 2009 - 6:23 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

Mike pointed this out also about the potential problems investing in ETF's and ETN's related to crude. I regret being so naive on this previously.

Here are some interesting posts also, I have not verified accuracy of any of them:

http://character141.blogspot.com/2009/01/us-oil-fu nd-etf-uso-crude-oil-contango.html
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Apartmentsba.com
Senior Member
Username: Saint

Post Number: 727
Registered: 5-2005


Posted on Sunday, February 15, 2009 - 6:50 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

WTM,

Definitely with many ETF's and ETN's that are related to crude you have to see the prospectus to see what it's all made up of. Many are not based on spot prices. They are based on future crude future contract options. You can have spot prices go up one day and have an ETF go down.

Take friday as an example. The spot price of crude went up. So did the March futures but May futures went DOWN and so did UCO, DXO, OIL and others.

I've found that these ETF's are better for daytrading or short term trading vs. holding long-term. They are excellent for quick trading. Many of the double or triple weighted ETF's are very volatile as you could expect. They aren't for the faint of heart.

Sometimes I hold SCO and UCO at the same time and just trade them. Definitely I wouldn't recommend these double or triple weighted ETF's for any major part of your portfolio but they can be fun to trade with a small percentage of your portfolio.

Good luck.
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WTMendoza.com
Advanced Member
Username: Welcometomendoza

Post Number: 383
Registered: 7-2007


Posted on Sunday, February 15, 2009 - 7:06 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

Mike,

Thanks - do you know which ETF's or ETN's are indeed directly related to spot prices of crude?
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Apartmentsba.com
Senior Member
Username: Saint

Post Number: 728
Registered: 5-2005


Posted on Monday, February 16, 2009 - 8:29 am:   Edit PostPrint Post

I'm not aware of any ETFs that are directly related to spot prices.

Here is a pretty good link that explains this in more detail for you WTM. Again, I wouldn't place any major part of your total portfolio in crude but I've found a small percentage of your portfolio can be lucrative if you are willing to accept the volatility swings.

Good luck.

http://www.marketfolly.com/2009/01/how-to-play-cru de-oil-using-etfs-etns.html

http://www.marketfolly.com/2009/01/how-contango-af fects-crude-oil-etfs-and.html
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Mark
Member
Username: Lostintheandes

Post Number: 87
Registered: 10-2008
Posted on Tuesday, February 17, 2009 - 1:46 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

Hey you long Oil chicos,
Looks like I was right this time...i don't see oil headed North until Monday. Remember what i said about storage issues and this week of Feb. I'm not always right but I sure nailed this one. I'll join you long on friday when oil is in the low 30s.
cheers,m
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Apartmentsba.com
Senior Member
Username: Saint

Post Number: 730
Registered: 5-2005


Posted on Tuesday, February 17, 2009 - 3:54 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

Mark,

Good call you made on oil. I unloaded some of my UCO this morning pre-market and bought some SCO but just dumped it. Still holding some UCO but the economic news is getting worse by the day.

I will add to some crude positions if it falls a bit more. Right now the markets are just totally ugly. I'm still waiting to go long the market. I told you a while back I saw a new low from the November 2008 lows and I am still a bear.

Good luck.
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Mark
Member
Username: Lostintheandes

Post Number: 88
Registered: 10-2008
Posted on Tuesday, February 17, 2009 - 4:45 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

We are on the same page...I'm still expecting DOW around or below 7K. My short COF,GS,RUT positions are working quite well as a hedge. My Dogs are down about 15%(Dow is down20%), my short RUT is up almost 20% which gives me a 5% net.
GS is treading water, but my COF call is a homerun. I'll be dropping the RUT position and loading up more Dogs south of DOW 7K.
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WTMendoza.com
Advanced Member
Username: Welcometomendoza

Post Number: 384
Registered: 7-2007


Posted on Tuesday, February 17, 2009 - 4:59 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

Good call Mark, however I sense one of the bottoms being closer to Tue/Wed....we shall see


Mike, allocation is a big topic for me, it's one of the few things I reccomend while playing the markets. Improper alocation is just as bad as tinkering with margin when one shouldn't. They are portfolio killers.
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Apartmentsba.com
Senior Member
Username: Saint

Post Number: 732
Registered: 5-2005


Posted on Tuesday, February 17, 2009 - 5:12 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

Hi fellas.

Yep. Allocation is extremely important. You can't place all your "chips" in one sector. I know a lot of people that tried to time the bottom and invested alot of their portfolio in the financial sector while it was at really super low levels only to see their investment lose most of it's value. You must diversify.

I also believe very strongly in asset allocation in general. I've been saying for a long time it's just wise to have a wide array of different types of investments. For me it includes having some assets OUTSIDE of your home countries.

Especially in this type of environment it's essential to be well diversified. It's amazing to me to see just how many people trusted Madoff with ALL their investment funds. Just silly.
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Mark
Member
Username: Lostintheandes

Post Number: 90
Registered: 10-2008
Posted on Wednesday, February 18, 2009 - 10:51 am:   Edit PostPrint Post

Maybe I can learn something about investor psychology here...

WTM, why would anyone remain long a position if he realy thinks it will put in a low next Tuesday or Wednesday. Don't you just simply sell it and rebuy next tuesday minus the grief.

I have to believe one of two things here...

1. you were just tweaking me to see if I am firm on my conviction that long oil is wrong at least until Friday.

2. you are married to your investment position and are determined to go down with the ship

respectfully, mark
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Apartmentsba.com
Senior Member
Username: Saint

Post Number: 734
Registered: 5-2005


Posted on Wednesday, February 18, 2009 - 11:11 am:   Edit PostPrint Post

Mark,

I can't speak for WTM but I think sometimes it's just impossible to pick the exact bottom. Granted those that jumped into crude even a few days ago are down big time. Still, I know sometimes I stay in a stock a bit longer than common sense might call for if I have big gains already in that stock and can stomach a further drop.

Like in UCO I have several points gain still from trading it. I held on a few days too long but still sitting on profits. I'm not sure with WTM but for me it just depends how much gain I already have on the position.

With all the bad news around the world I do think you are right crude can fall a bit lower short term. Also, lots of people don't like getting in and out all the time but I think if you are playing double weighted ETF's you gotta be willing to move in and out. That's what they are best designed for in many sectors.
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WTMendoza.com
Advanced Member
Username: Welcometomendoza

Post Number: 386
Registered: 7-2007


Posted on Thursday, February 19, 2009 - 9:27 am:   Edit PostPrint Post

Hi Mark, my strategy is to try to avoid knee jerk trading, and especially avoid problems with tax-related wash sale issues, etc...so using cautious and carefully allocated portions where appropriate is the key in my opinion.

The particular investment involved of course is taken into account. If we were talking about some bio stock, I would be using much smaller allocations and probably not have as near as much conviction as I am talking here on crude.

At least with crude, unless they magically convert cars to run on water, we can pretty sure that the long term outlook, combined with apparent pending inflation, that will be surges and prices increases in the mid-term future.

Apart from being way to busy yesterday, I didn't want to break my previous commitment to over allocate in the sim port, even though it seems like a no brainer.

Again, great call on crude oil, and I suspect that even if it has up days today and Friday and into next week, we may have not seen the true bottom yet....maybe...we may be surprised again
Cheers
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WTMendoza.com
Advanced Member
Username: Welcometomendoza

Post Number: 387
Registered: 7-2007


Posted on Thursday, February 19, 2009 - 9:30 am:   Edit PostPrint Post

Well, so far my bearish feelings about gold are looking laughable, although again i would not be surprised to see it cross the 1000 mark again and seem like it is headed for the moon, but a rug pull is in the cards in my opinion, at least some day, LOL.

======================================
Banking on gold when banks fail

NEW YORK, Feb. 19 (UPI) -- A fear of stocks and currency is pushing an interest in buying gold, long thought to be a fail-safe investment, U.S. gold merchants said.
"Gold is almost an insurance policy," Arthur Blumenthal at Stack's, a New York dealer, told USA Today. "It will always be there, and always pay."

"January was the best month we've ever had, and February is shaping up to be the same," said David Breahm, vice president of research at Blanchard & Co., a bullion dealership in New Orleans.

"We sold more gold in January than in all of 2007," he said to the newspaper.

The price of gold has soared from $713 an ounce in October to near $980 an ounce but not everyone believes the prices will hold up.

"We think gold will tumble," said Peter Kendall, co-editor of the Elliot Wave Financial Forecast. Gold will be a deal when it falls to $600 an ounce, Kendall told USA Today.
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Mark
Member
Username: Lostintheandes

Post Number: 93
Registered: 10-2008
Posted on Saturday, February 21, 2009 - 9:14 am:   Edit PostPrint Post

This is an excellant article on dividend stocks good and bad. My thoughts are: these are the stocks to own when the recovery begins. As you know I have a small basket of them with a small cap hedge(Inverse Russle 2000). Somewhere below DOW 7K I will be making it a very large basket. The market correction is done now as it is below true value. That said however there is always an overcorrection which is where we are now. I think the DOW could hit as low as 6K but I wont wait until then to begin picking up these excellant companies that got trampled in the race to the exit. For more on value investing in troubled times see article below.


http://www.fool.com/investing/dividends-income/200 9/02/21/the-next-2-dividend-blowups.aspx
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AMARAGGI
Junior Member
Username: Amar

Post Number: 27
Registered: 12-2006
Posted on Sunday, February 22, 2009 - 5:26 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

Hello Mark,

May I ask a question from avery amateur point of view?
Why are you hedging in such kind of environment. Is it not as if you were betting both on red and black at roulette? Obviously on the long term you believe that stocks of good companies will rebound so why hedging?
Sorry if my question is totally stupid.
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Mark
Member
Username: Lostintheandes

Post Number: 95
Registered: 10-2008
Posted on Sunday, February 22, 2009 - 8:28 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

Its ok...with a hedge you don't have to bet that the market will go up or down. My bet is that in times of uncertainty...
if the market goes up...dividend stocks go up more than small caps, and if the market goes down small caps go down more than dividend stocks. Either way i win and there is not near the risk that you have with a naked long or short postion. I am simply saying in these times dividend stocks trump small cap. When We are closer to a clear bottom I will do as you say and bet only on the black roulete numbers but for now I like the safety of the hedge. Since Nov. this strategy is up about 5% with what I consider little risk. cheers
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Mark
Member
Username: Lostintheandes

Post Number: 96
Registered: 10-2008
Posted on Monday, February 23, 2009 - 1:57 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

GE is starting to look interesting to me at these levels in spite of the 20 B in bad debt in its financing unit. Mike, help me out here before I do something foolish. m
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Apartmentsba.com
Senior Member
Username: Saint

Post Number: 739
Registered: 5-2005


Posted on Monday, February 23, 2009 - 3:56 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

Mark,

I posted a while ago GE would most likely hit single digits and here we are. GE is being dragged down by the toxic portfolio at GE Capital. I actually have been shorting a bit of GE the past few weeks.

It's hard to bet against the likes of Warren Buffett but let's face it. Buffett's down over 50% in a short amount of time. I think he made a big mistake with GE buying when he did.

GE minus the GE Capital would be attractive but they will have to cut their dividend payment sometime soon. I expect them to probably announce that soon.

I think if you are holding for a LONG TERM portfolio you could maybe add here at these levels but I am not interested in GE even at these beaten down levels. It's impossible to value because of their toxic losses and future losses still yet to come.

I'm still not going long yet. Still on the sidelines for a bit longer. The banking mess still has yet to be played out and fixed. I don't like individual stocks in the financial sector. I think for longer term portfolios it's impossible to pick the exact bottom but sitting on the sidelines has felt good (and shorting).

I don't see anything to rally the market and the economy is getting worse. The massive unemployment going on still has yet to be played out. I'd rather miss out a bit and see if there is light at the end of the tunnel on the banking mess. Market isn't going to turn around without that mess solved.

I think GE could have a bounce up if we have a sucker's rally but I also think with the deleveraging still going on GE could get cut in half even from today's prices.

It's hard for me to even think about the valuation on a stock when you have no idea of the tremendous potential losses on the books. GE Capital is so toxic with it's tremendous liabilities.

This type of market short term is almost uninvestible. But again, if you are in it for the LONG TERM I think you can start dipping your toes in the market.
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WTMendoza.com
Advanced Member
Username: Welcometomendoza

Post Number: 390
Registered: 7-2007


Posted on Tuesday, February 24, 2009 - 8:22 am:   Edit PostPrint Post

Unless GE the company just falls apart, I would agree that under $10 it is a long term buy. On the other hand, I would go allocated properly, cause ya just never know these days.
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WTMendoza.com
Advanced Member
Username: Welcometomendoza

Post Number: 395
Registered: 7-2007


Posted on Tuesday, February 24, 2009 - 9:50 am:   Edit PostPrint Post

sim port:

this morning
added BAC at aprox 4.00
added GE at aprox $9
added a but of NASDAQ:GOLD if it hits 50.75, that way it will be strong on my radar to be on the watch to short it in the future , and I may make some money as it goes up some
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WTMendoza.com
Advanced Member
Username: Welcometomendoza

Post Number: 400
Registered: 7-2007


Posted on Wednesday, February 25, 2009 - 9:36 am:   Edit PostPrint Post

sim port:
adding an allocation of F at aprox 2.12
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WTMendoza.com
Advanced Member
Username: Welcometomendoza

Post Number: 401
Registered: 7-2007


Posted on Wednesday, February 25, 2009 - 9:41 am:   Edit PostPrint Post

sim port: letting BAC go at 4.70 or so to keep in line with the strategy of this particular portfolio - too fast a gain to ignore.

On a separate note, Mike and Mark, would you mind giving my your short and mid-term opinions on:

BME
EDE
WYE
O
OKSB
TII
TMX

thanks
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Mark
Member
Username: Lostintheandes

Post Number: 98
Registered: 10-2008
Posted on Wednesday, February 25, 2009 - 3:09 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

I'll look at them later but O is commercial RE which I think is going to stink up the place soon.
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Apartmentsba.com
Senior Member
Username: Saint

Post Number: 743
Registered: 5-2005


Posted on Wednesday, February 25, 2009 - 3:16 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

I've been in meetings all day. I don't trade any of those stocks so I don't want to comment on them. But I agree with Mark. I'd stay away from commercial real estate. Still lots of toxic losses on commercial real estate. Personally I think residential real estate still has another 10% - 20% to fall ultimately in lots of places in the USA. I hope I'm wrong but I still think that even with Obama's plan there are going to be lots and lots of foreclosures on the horizon.

I think ultimately without principle reductions (which I'm strongly against as it essentially voids contract law) we will see many more foreclosures on the horizon.

WTM - good play on dumping BAC for a quick profit. I think on financials that's the way to go. With the plunge protection team in place they can cause it to go up temporarily and maybe even short term they take a bounce up. I think it's wise to take guaranteed profits off the table on them.

If you are looking at commercial real estate players you seem to like risk. I wouldn't touch ANY commercial real estate plays right now. Good luck.
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WTMendoza.com
Advanced Member
Username: Welcometomendoza

Post Number: 403
Registered: 7-2007


Posted on Wednesday, February 25, 2009 - 8:10 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

Thanks guys for the comments and yeah I should have specified that when asking your opinions i meant long and sort. In fact I thought O was an excellent candidate for a short so was curious your thoughts based on the relativley unaffected chart so far
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Mark
Member
Username: Lostintheandes

Post Number: 100
Registered: 10-2008
Posted on Wednesday, February 25, 2009 - 8:44 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

Ahh, they are commercial RE...its coming down the pike. I wondered if it would be worth the dame analysis I did when I singled out COF as the credit card scape goat.

Next year we will see significant RE losses when shops close, and business tighten their belts. Some of the REITs are going down. Picking the losers could be tough for someone like me. I have owned single family rental homes and my own personal homes but know little about commercial RE. However i bet Mike could do it.
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Apartmentsba.com
Senior Member
Username: Saint

Post Number: 748
Registered: 5-2005


Posted on Thursday, February 26, 2009 - 9:43 am:   Edit PostPrint Post

WTM,

I've been busy lately but I'll try to take a look at some of them later. I'm headed on vacation here next week to La Jolla but I'll try to do it when I get back. I'll be away from the board probably until March 21 or so when I get back.

I think there will be some good shorting opportunities for commercial real estate but really I haven't checked out too many plays. I never even shorted the home builders. I focused on short selling the banks, bond insurers, etc. To be honest, I haven't really been looking to short anymore. I covered on all my short positions and the only shorting I'm doing is short term mostly daily/weekly stuff when the market pops up.

I do agree with Mark that there should be significant losses in that sector. However, I probably won't short more. I'm actually waiting for the market to bottom out and switch to the long side for a longer term portfolio.
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Mark
Intermediate Member
Username: Lostintheandes

Post Number: 103
Registered: 10-2008
Posted on Thursday, February 26, 2009 - 12:11 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

Look at a chart for COF....3 month is good. Is that a double bottom or is this the chance of a lifetime. I steered you to shorting this thing around 30. Here's your chance..regardless of technical analysis of this chart I am doubling down on my bet. Iv'e already rode it down a lot but I am upping the ante today. m
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Mark
Intermediate Member
Username: Lostintheandes

Post Number: 104
Registered: 10-2008
Posted on Thursday, February 26, 2009 - 5:05 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

Somebody is reading these posts...COF dropped almost 10%.
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WTMendoza.com
Advanced Member
Username: Welcometomendoza

Post Number: 413
Registered: 7-2007


Posted on Friday, February 27, 2009 - 3:04 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

This is why I love the word WildCard ..cause things get Wild sometimes:

http://www.forbes.com/2009/02/26/bank-america-fidu ciary-opinions_merrill_lynch.html

A Breach Of Fiduciary Duty At Bank Of America?
Mark T. Williams, 02.26.09, 06:18 PM EST
Potential negligence during its Merrill Lynch acquisition.

Corporate missteps at Bank of America (BoA) involving the $50 billion agreement to purchase Merrill Lynch (ML) raise significant corporate-governance issues about the level of fiduciary duty exercised by BoA's CEO Ken Lewis and its board of directors. Shareholders (and now U.S. taxpayers) deserve prompt answers.

(read article for rest)
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Apartmentsba.com
Senior Member
Username: Saint

Post Number: 754
Registered: 5-2005


Posted on Friday, February 27, 2009 - 3:20 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

Mark - good call on COF. I think you are right that it has plenty more room to fall. Maybe I'll buy some puts on it for kicks and giggles. Lots of financials are still dogs. How I wish I was still short on Citigroup. I covered my short position too soon on that and many other financial toxic waste companies. Still, I didn't want to be greedy. I think in this market you must take some solid gains when you can. I shorted some companies like LEH into bankruptcy so I can't complain.

WTM - I'm glad you dumped that BAC the other day for a nice gain. I think that's what you have to do if you play financials. One day the PPT will make some announcement and it pops up. Then reality sets in and they fall again. BAC is a wildcard as you mentioned before. It's a shame what Ken Lewis did with that company. They were poised before to be powerful and they blew it buying too much junk. BAC could go the way of Citigroup.

You still in your OIL position? It's been volatile lately. I've been trading UCO a bit. Volatile as always.

Mark - did you pick up any GE? Remember what I've been writing about GE for a while now. I've laid out in detail what was going on with their GE Capital division and I told you that they would have to cut their dividend. Not sure why they didn't do it before. I love how all these CEO's keep saying, "we will NOT cut the dividend" then like always they cut it a short while later. GE probably will cut it again before the end of 2009.

Best.
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Mark
Intermediate Member
Username: Lostintheandes

Post Number: 109
Registered: 10-2008
Posted on Friday, February 27, 2009 - 7:11 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

No I did not buy GE....yet. There still is some discovery on their financial unit that I can't get any good info on. Imagine that. COF is back down to 12 so its not the no brainer it was before. I may sell some Monday. They have 14B cash and owe 22B. hmmmm... a billion doesn't seem like much anymore the way the govt throws money around.
Oil might be worth picking up a little after today.
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Apartmentsba.com
Senior Member
Username: Saint

Post Number: 758
Registered: 5-2005


Posted on Friday, February 27, 2009 - 7:56 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

I agree that if GE falls a bit further it becomes a buy for LONG TERM portfolio. I originally thought maybe around $8 would be a "buy" on it. Now I may try to wait to pick it up around $6.

I agree with you Mark that I've never before in my life seen the billion dollar figure thrown around so much like it's no big deal. I remember when a company saying they lost a billion bucks might have meant something. These days it doesn't shock anyone anymore which in and of itself tells us how bad this turmoil is.

Longer term... crude prices definitely will go up. Demand will eventually go up again. I'm sitting on some UCO and trading it a bit. It's fairly volatile but nice for trading.
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Apartmentsba.com
Senior Member
Username: Saint

Post Number: 763
Registered: 5-2005


Posted on Monday, March 02, 2009 - 11:08 am:   Edit PostPrint Post

Mark - I still think GE isn't a buy until maybe around $6. You can see it falling like a brick today yet again. Just too much toxic waste in their GE Capital division as I've maintained for a while now.

Dow 6000's are here as I assumed we would be for a new low. As long as the financials continue to bleed, so will the general market. Still pretty ugly.

A little bit longer and I switch over from cash and shorting to "long". I'm headed on vacation for a few weeks and won't be posting much.

Have a great March everyone.
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Mark
Intermediate Member
Username: Lostintheandes

Post Number: 112
Registered: 10-2008
Posted on Monday, March 02, 2009 - 7:08 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

Hola Chicos,
On thursday midday I alerted you to a fantastic opportunity on COF. I covered my double down today and have removed this short from my bet the first born list. It is still a great bet on the short side but not the gimme it was on Thursday. Don't get me wrong..I am still short just not crazy short. If you played along, you owe me a glass of wine. m
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WTMendoza.com
Advanced Member
Username: Welcometomendoza

Post Number: 414
Registered: 7-2007


Posted on Tuesday, March 03, 2009 - 10:05 am:   Edit PostPrint Post

Mike have a great in La Jolla, one of my favorite places in SoCal, we used to live 15 miles north of there but pretended we lived in La Jolla LOL

Mark, excellent call on COF!

sim port:
I just added 2nd allocation of GE at aprox 7.40

I have had virtually no time to look at many stock opportunities so far and I know there is so much going on. I also have a ton of thoughts about related stuff also that I will post . How it cracks me up that the talking heads now call the stock market the "economy" and also why they are befuddled that the market keeps going down after each little bailout and fix in the last few days. They don't even realize that the vast percentage of bail out and fix money doesn't hit coffers the day of the announcement and how it all relates to market fear of what really will be done with the bailout and fix money. Markets also operates on results, not just speculation. And upside speculation doesn't work very well in the general indexes in a market full of fear.

Also, It is no doubt in my mind that some of the stocks that will eventually benefit from bailout and fix money have already begun a climb to what will be historic highs for those stocks. Upside surprise will be the theme of the year for many stocks. Forget the indexes, this is a stock picking market, in my humble opinion.

Mike, regarding oil, my sim port is listed here:

http://vse.marketwatch.com/Game/Portfolio.aspx?a=P cK48HV9h2bZS+k5Mfiy+uHPrfy7PzHZsUOXnM/2O0Owq6hrqVa fmChlfse7GQrO&g=WTM2009

Back later cheers!
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WTMendoza.com
Advanced Member
Username: Welcometomendoza

Post Number: 416
Registered: 7-2007


Posted on Wednesday, March 04, 2009 - 10:22 am:   Edit PostPrint Post

sim port:
adding 3rd and final allocation of GE at aprox 5.94

It's fairly evident this will take a while to recover and that the insiders know a lot more than we do.
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WTMendoza.com
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Username: Welcometomendoza

Post Number: 417
Registered: 7-2007


Posted on Wednesday, March 04, 2009 - 1:15 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

the actual GE fill that VSE gave me on the sim port is an unbeleivable 6.91, in spite of the fact that when I placed the market order , it was at 5.94.

This is indeed semi-indicative of real life situation becuase when a market order is placed, you are up for grabs in a very volatile trading minute. If it were real life, many discount brokers would work with you if you persisted to prove the time of the order vs. what was happening in the stock you are buying. Other discount brokers will not work with you to correct. The boys and girls at VSE simulated portfolio already have already previously made it clear to me they will not adjust these kind of trades that are market orders in a high volume environment, especially if the execution price matches a tape price within a reasonable time frame of the time the order was placed. I have emailed them again anyway protesting this absurdity. My actual average cost cost on GE should be 7.29 at 3250 shares, giving VSE the benefit of the doubt with a acceptable execution price of 6.30 or so
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WTMendoza.com
Advanced Member
Username: Welcometomendoza

Post Number: 419
Registered: 7-2007


Posted on Friday, March 06, 2009 - 3:07 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

sim port:
added first allocation of USB at aprox 8.50

keeping allocation powder for next potential leg down
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Mark
Intermediate Member
Username: Lostintheandes

Post Number: 114
Registered: 10-2008
Posted on Saturday, March 07, 2009 - 7:28 am:   Edit PostPrint Post

In January I wrote that I would shift to a mostly long position between DOW 6K-7K. Now that we are at DOW 6500...I am still hesitating for two reasons.

1. my current strategy is up more than I hoped for: long Dividend/short Russle2000. Since the beginning of Nov when I outlined this stratagy, My Dow Dividends are down 22.5% while the RUT is down 35% giving me a net gain of 13%.(I didn't actually realize this whole amount because it was several days later before I got the positions fully in place) This does not count the fact that I have recieved almost another 1.5 % in dividends. For reference the DOW fell 29% in the same time frame.
2.There has been no Financials solution yet. I am short financials so thats ok but I agree with Mike that without the banks it will be hard to head bullish.

Because my current strategy has very little risk I am staying with it a little longer and adding to it on appropriate up/down ticks. If the Govt doesn't work out the Financials mess the market will(witness C<1.00) so either way it won't be long now. Also we may have seen a peak in lay-offs;thats not to say a peak in unemployment. Anyways I thought I owed this post since I have been fairly vocal at times on this board.

cheers
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Mark
Intermediate Member
Username: Lostintheandes

Post Number: 115
Registered: 10-2008
Posted on Monday, March 09, 2009 - 9:35 am:   Edit PostPrint Post

COF is cutting dividends by 87%. Maybe the people in charge there read my posts and finally realized they are in trouble. All though I think most of this is priced in as the drop in stock price shows most investors are smarter than the people in charge, there could be some action this week. If its up I will short more:If its down I will take profits. cheers

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Capital-One-slashes-dividend-apf-14579397.html

(Message edited by admin on March 09, 2009)
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WTMendoza.com
Advanced Member
Username: Welcometomendoza

Post Number: 421
Registered: 7-2007


Posted on Wednesday, March 11, 2009 - 9:28 am:   Edit PostPrint Post

sim port:
I cut loose USB at a nice 2 day profit, and also UCO

I am convinced that had I the time in the last week to pay proper attention to this particular bottom we hit a few days, ago, my portfolio would be much farther ahead than it is now. On the hand, maybe my lack of active participation has saved me. LOL.

Mark, I notice on your sim port:
http://vse.marketwatch.com/Game/Portfolio.aspx?a=i 3d7NKeUOM0AIybjgkcVFHCZI4YDayuRfpBNUXgYhSNjo9ah3+t 14oDxnGXDb/43&g=100GRANDSLAM

...that you don't reflect your Russel hedge, or am I missing it?
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WTMendoza.com
Advanced Member
Username: Welcometomendoza

Post Number: 422
Registered: 7-2007


Posted on Wednesday, March 11, 2009 - 12:58 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

sim port:
Adding second allocation of F at 1.99 or so.
Setting up a tight automatic sell at 2.09 for now, based on history of this stock and risk-reward ratio. I am sure it will run more but thats not the objective of this portfolio
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Mark
Intermediate Member
Username: Lostintheandes

Post Number: 117
Registered: 10-2008
Posted on Wednesday, March 11, 2009 - 1:33 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

WTM, I use the Rydex short RUT funds but the marketwatch site doesn't recognize them for some reason. When I couldn't simulate my real port I decided to use the sim for playing. hence you will also notice I am trading C which I said is untradeble as well as some oil stocks. I have posted all my real trades here with the exception of a little bit of silver,platinum and some financial etfs.
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WTMendoza.com
Advanced Member
Username: Welcometomendoza

Post Number: 423
Registered: 7-2007


Posted on Wednesday, March 11, 2009 - 2:52 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

sim port:
added a third and final allocation of F at under 1.94 for the blowout special coming up. I think.


Mark,
Would that be:
Rydex Inverse 2x Russell 2000 (ETF)
ticker symbol RRZ

?

I show RUT as company Rutter Inc.

C Citigroup -I don't agree it is not tradeable. It could be certainly be argued it is not "investable." if thats what you mean.
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WTMendoza.com
Advanced Member
Username: Welcometomendoza

Post Number: 424
Registered: 7-2007


Posted on Wednesday, March 11, 2009 - 3:19 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

sim port:
resetting the limit sell on F to a conservative 2.21 which I expect to occur in the next 1 to 3 sessions
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Mark
Intermediate Member
Username: Lostintheandes

Post Number: 118
Registered: 10-2008
Posted on Wednesday, March 11, 2009 - 9:41 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

RYDEX ETF TRUST
INVERSE 2X S&P SELECT
SECTOR FINANCIALS

copied off my transaction page.


I tried RRZ on the sim site just now and it worked fine. I'll re do the sim to reflect real life.
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WTMendoza.com
Advanced Member
Username: Welcometomendoza

Post Number: 426
Registered: 7-2007


Posted on Thursday, March 12, 2009 - 3:29 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

sim port:
changed the F sell back to 2.09 to stay within strict portfolio rules. Once it executes , it is allowed to soar. LOL.
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WTMendoza.com
Advanced Member
Username: Welcometomendoza

Post Number: 427
Registered: 7-2007


Posted on Monday, March 16, 2009 - 9:40 am:   Edit PostPrint Post

sim port:
started a new UCO long position at aprox 7.29

looking forward to see what other oppoertunities there may be today around 3:15pm EST
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WTMendoza.com
Advanced Member
Username: Welcometomendoza

Post Number: 428
Registered: 7-2007


Posted on Monday, March 16, 2009 - 3:49 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

sim port:
I cut loose the UCO long at a nice 10% one session profit
I bought DYN and SBUX with safe 4% targets projected to hit in the next 1 to 4 sessions

Mark, whatcha got going?

ApartmentsBA - market thoughts from sunny La Jolla?
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Mark
Intermediate Member
Username: Lostintheandes

Post Number: 119
Registered: 10-2008
Posted on Monday, March 16, 2009 - 8:06 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

Nice job on UCO..it is having trouble getting above the 30 day average so I think you caught it right. I'm watching this little ralley and thinking about selling a little bit into it as I am thinking it will be headed back the other way soon. The fed inactivity is interesting; the financials have rallyed thinking the mark to marketing rule is going away. I think it would be foolish to remove it but i know its tempting as everyone is desperate.
I'm watching oil but have not done anything with it. It goes down from here, I am convinced, but not enought to put money on it.
cheers
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Mark
Intermediate Member
Username: Lostintheandes

Post Number: 120
Registered: 10-2008
Posted on Wednesday, March 18, 2009 - 10:01 am:   Edit PostPrint Post

We are near the breaking point for this rally. It probably drops back to previouse lows at this point. If I'm wrong then the bull rides and takes this baby up aways. I am playing it with a IWM straddle. I am expecting some good action through the end of the week. cheers
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Mark
Intermediate Member
Username: Lostintheandes

Post Number: 121
Registered: 10-2008
Posted on Wednesday, March 18, 2009 - 10:08 am:   Edit PostPrint Post

I also shorted some UCO today. Oil reserve announcmnet today and option close this week. Maybe a little downside here.
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WTMendoza.com
Advanced Member
Username: Welcometomendoza

Post Number: 430
Registered: 7-2007


Posted on Wednesday, March 18, 2009 - 10:35 am:   Edit PostPrint Post

yeah agreed this is a cautious point - on the other hand, I maintain this continues to be a stock pickers market, and with lots of opportunities. What out for that black gold - its mucky but choppy
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WTMendoza.com
Advanced Member
Username: Welcometomendoza

Post Number: 431
Registered: 7-2007


Posted on Wednesday, March 18, 2009 - 10:43 am:   Edit PostPrint Post

sim port:
adding an initial allocation of EMC long at aprox 11.20 with estimated target of 11.66 in 1 to 8 sessions in this case.
normally would be 1 to 4 sessions, but given the market is at a short term decision point, I'm adding 4 more sessions
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WTMendoza.com
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Username: Welcometomendoza

Post Number: 432
Registered: 7-2007


Posted on Wednesday, March 18, 2009 - 2:16 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

sim port:
added second allocation of EMC at aprox 11.31
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WTMendoza.com
Advanced Member
Username: Welcometomendoza

Post Number: 433
Registered: 7-2007


Posted on Wednesday, March 18, 2009 - 2:55 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

sim port:
changing limit sell on EMC to 11.73
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WTMendoza.com
Advanced Member
Username: Welcometomendoza

Post Number: 434
Registered: 7-2007


Posted on Wednesday, March 18, 2009 - 3:59 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

sim port:
added long BCS and MOT, and short CRM - respective 4% targets on the longs, and wait and see on that dastardly CRM
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Mark
Intermediate Member
Username: Lostintheandes

Post Number: 122
Registered: 10-2008
Posted on Wednesday, March 18, 2009 - 4:05 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

closed part of straddle(calls up big today); recouped investment and have all of the puts and 1/4 of the calls to let ride tomorrow. USO short(not UCO as stated earlier) are even money even though supply grew. I should have closed midday for modest gain but will wait until tomorrow. m
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WTMendoza.com
Advanced Member
Username: Welcometomendoza

Post Number: 436
Registered: 7-2007


Posted on Thursday, March 19, 2009 - 8:07 am:   Edit PostPrint Post

a peek behind the C squeeze:

In another example of the unintended consequences of the government's deep involvement in the financial markets, some hedge funds have suffered losses on a trade they thought would be easy money based on the latest bailout of Citigroup Inc.

Hedge funds rushed in to buy preferred shares of Citigroup after the New York bank announced last month that it would convert preferred shares into common stock. The fast-money crowd hoped to scoop up a quick profit based on the attractive conversion terms being offered by Citigroup to preferred shareholders, including the government.

Now, though, the hedge funds are licking their wounds. The reason: Their strategy of buying Citigroup preferred shares while selling short the common stock backfired. Since March 5, the price of Citigroup common shares has tripled, including a 23% jump Wednesday that left the stock at $3.08 in 4 p.m. New York Stock Exchange composite trading.

"There are a lot of hedge funds looking for free money, and a lot of people were betting against Citi," says Jonathon Trugman, who runs Pendulum Capital Management, a stock-picking hedge fund in New York. Hedge funds lost money on Citigroup because "not every patient who goes into coronary arrest fails to come out of it."

The hedge funds' pain from Citigroup looks like the government's gain, at least for the moment, since preferred holders would be converting each share of preferred stock into common stock that has risen mightily in value. As of Wednesday afternoon, the difference between the preferred and common shares was $8.45, based on the conversion rate of 7.31.

At the time of last month's announcement, there was a difference of $2.80 between the per-share price of Citigroup's preferred stock and the common stock. A few days later, the spread was around 70 cents.

The hedge funds brought some of the problems on themselves. Some became nervous about the conversion terms when Citigroup didn't file documents outlining the conversion as quickly as they had hoped, hedge-fund managers say. Citigroup didn't give a deadline for when it planned to make an exchange-offer filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, but many traders hoped it would come out Monday along with Citigroup's preliminary proxy filing.

As a result, many hedge funds decided to bail out of the trade because they considered the risks to be too high that the conversion plans might change. When they headed for the exits, a frenzy of buying in Citigroup shares ensued, hedge-fund managers say, pushing the bank's stock higher and sticking them with losses.

A look at the action in Citigroup's shares provides a glimpse into the stampede by hedge funds. On Feb. 27, the day of the announcement, Citigroup volume soared to two billion shares, one of its busiest days ever, as hedge funds sold the bank's shares short.

The short-selling, which involves selling borrowed shares hoping to buy them back later at a lower price, flooded the market with Citigroup shares and sent the stock down 39% to $1.50. The squeeze against the shorts took off after Chief Executive Vikram Pandit told employees in a memo March 9 that the company was profitable in January and February.

The Citigroup short squeeze is reminiscent of the drubbing hedge funds got in October when shares of Volkswagen AG soared more than 300% in two days, crushing traders who had bet on a price decline. The run-up came after Porsche Automobil Holding SE said it had boosted its VW stake, forcing traders to spend hundreds of millions of dollars exiting from positions by buying VW shares at ever-higher prices.

Profitable trading strategies have been hard to find lately for hedge funds, so it was no wonder they jumped on the idea, according to some hedge-fund traders.

One hedge-fund manager said shorting Citigroup seemed like a risky proposition because it has been difficult to get a guarantee that shares borrowed in a short sale wouldn't be recalled by their broker, increasing the risk of a loss.

In recent days, holders of the shares willing to lend to short-sellers became increasingly difficult to find. "Everybody's borrow disappeared on Monday," says one hedge-fund manager.

Write to Susan Pulliam at susan.pulliam@wsj.com and Jenny Strasburg at jenny.strasburg@wsj.com
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WTMendoza.com
Advanced Member
Username: Welcometomendoza

Post Number: 437
Registered: 7-2007


Posted on Thursday, March 19, 2009 - 3:55 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

sim port:
bought:
msft: 17.03
pbr 32.50
gm 2.90
hal 17.90
bpz 4.03
prices are aprox awaiting confirms at:

http://vse.marketwatch.com/Game/Portfolio.aspx?a=P cK48HV9h2bZS+k5Mfiy+uHPrfy7PzHZsUOXnM/2O0Owq6hrqVa fmChlfse7GQrO&g=WTM2009

boring price targets of 4% in 1 to 8 sessions
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WTMendoza.com
Advanced Member
Username: Welcometomendoza

Post Number: 438
Registered: 7-2007


Posted on Friday, March 20, 2009 - 9:54 am:   Edit PostPrint Post

To update my first post on this board, until further notice, I am:

Nuetral on FXY (yen).
Neutral on FXE (euro).
Neutral on UUP (dollar).
Neutral to bearish on gold - I am thinking it is at par for a while.
Repositioned short on CRM at 35 in the sim port.
Bullish on Oil to reasonable levels between 60 and 90 over the next few years.

I am nuetral on the currencies until a clearer picture forms in the comign weeks and months. Lots of people keep saying the dollar is headed for hell. I don’t trust the manipulators, and the big boys have demonstrated huge manipulation powers.
So I continue to play flows and what I see with my own eyes.

Mark and Mike, would love your thoughts, cheers
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Mark
Intermediate Member
Username: Lostintheandes

Post Number: 123
Registered: 10-2008
Posted on Saturday, March 21, 2009 - 4:39 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

I'm still stuck trying to read into the feds actions. longterm it can't be good to buy your own debt making an impossible mountain for your children,,but...Short term once the finacials are flush(Govt. wipes away toxic debt) I see nothing holding the market back from a nice little run even if its at the expense of the dollar. Played a straddle last week while I'm puzzling over this and it turned out well. May do the same this week.
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Mark
Intermediate Member
Username: Lostintheandes

Post Number: 124
Registered: 10-2008
Posted on Monday, March 23, 2009 - 9:49 am:   Edit PostPrint Post

Went short today(IWM). The reaction to the news seems overdone.
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WTMendoza.com
Advanced Member
Username: Welcometomendoza

Post Number: 439
Registered: 7-2007


Posted on Monday, March 23, 2009 - 4:23 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

Mark I agree with you in principal - I hope you are going in allocated on that puppy though, the manipulators have big objectives, both long and short, imo, ...and gosh knows how much this flood of digital dollars have been created to ebb and flow back into certain stocks, especially ones owned by congress, lol. If you project inflation out to what it should be with all this dollar printing, higher stock prices wont mean a whole lot in the vast scheme of things.
Lets see what they do with money supply in 2009

sim port:
long:
added DUK at 14.64
added BEAV at 8.28
added NBG at 3.29

4% targets in the next 1 to 8 sessions
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WTMendoza.com
Advanced Member
Username: Welcometomendoza

Post Number: 441
Registered: 7-2007


Posted on Tuesday, March 24, 2009 - 4:09 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

sim port
long
CCL at 22.64
ALU at 1.88
BKD at 4.79
4% targets in next 1 to 8 sessions

also added BNI as longer term target for perhaps around $80
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WTMendoza.com
Advanced Member
Username: Welcometomendoza

Post Number: 442
Registered: 7-2007


Posted on Wednesday, March 25, 2009 - 4:13 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

sim port:
long:
UDN at 25.64 (hedge - longer term target if USD does go down some - play by ear)
HAL - doubled up at 16.86
ALU - "recycle" entry at 1.90
COF - aprox 14.55
ECLP - aprox 10.27
IVN - aprox 5.93
PCCC - aprox 3.75

4% targets in 1 to 8 sessions

Mark, Mike? anybody else? market thoughts? picks?, etc?
cheers
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Apartmentsba.com
Senior Member
Username: Saint

Post Number: 765
Registered: 5-2005


Posted on Wednesday, March 25, 2009 - 4:15 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

Hi fellas. Just got back from La Jolla. I had a great trip! I forgot just how great of a city it is. I'm looking forward to returning there next year. I'll probably be away from the boards the next 2 weeks as I have thousands and thousands of emails to catch up on.

I didn't trade while I was away much. My limit order to buy GE kicked in at $6.50 but I dumped it at $10. Couldn't resist the huge % gain. Also, I dumped all the UCO I bought earlier at $10 for a nice profit. It's a fun stock to trade no Mendoza?

Right now I'm sitting on the sidelines with cash. I dumped most of everything on that nice run up in the market. Unfortunately I don't think we are done with darker days again. Lots of problems still exist including the ugly unemployment.

While I was in California the mood was pretty grim. Lots of the shopping malls were totally empty and I talked to lots of the employees at several higher end stores and they all said it's totally dead. I still see 2009 as the year to ride it out.

Good luck trading fellas.

PS - Living in Patagonia, it was a pleasure meeting you today in my office. Enjoy the rest of your stay in Buenos Aires. I will look you up when I'm down in Bariloche for my May trip down there. Cheers.
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WTMendoza.com
Advanced Member
Username: Welcometomendoza

Post Number: 445
Registered: 7-2007


Posted on Wednesday, March 25, 2009 - 4:37 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

Welcome back Mike, I have not touched UCO in many sessions - I keep waiting for it to pull back which it really hasn't yet.
I would think that oil is a good long term investment right now at this price still, but I'm afraid to truly go long these ETF's on it, for fear of some chaos related to ETF's...lol
I suppose best bet is to buy the oil futures if one were to go long oil for the long term.

California, yeah they are busy taking their high end hit right now, but if the state doesn't fall apart, the population is generally well equipped to ride out this storm. I think.
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Apartmentsba.com
Senior Member
Username: Saint

Post Number: 766
Registered: 5-2005


Posted on Wednesday, March 25, 2009 - 5:09 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

Thanks Mendoza.

I've found the best strategy on the oil ETF's is trading them and taking gains when you can. Oil has been pretty volatile and I trade around a bit but I'm not as active of a trader as you are. It looks like you are almost a full time active trader. I don't trade as much these days. I do buy on days when the market gets beaten up but usually dump it all on sucker rallies.

The financial and banking problems are still there. Yes, plans have been put forward but make no mistakes. Lots of problems still out there. Sure long term the market will come back but I can't find anything wrong with taking guaranteed quick profits off the table in this market. The volatility is obscene watching some of these stocks go up or down 20%-50% in a matter of weeks.

I agree with you about California. The population long term seems to be pretty tough and I'm sure they will ride it out. There is a tremendous amount of concentrated wealth in California.

Not sure if you saw this today on Bloomberg - http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive &sid=aUnHHxyqfsyA

"California Home Prices Sank 41% in Past Year on Foreclosures".

I don't think the foreclosure wave is over yet by a long shot. Amazing to think that foreclosures accounted for 58% of all existing home sales in February 2009!

I've been watching the real estate market fairly closely in California and it's been amazing seeing the downfall. Although I have to say the price declines seem more sheltered in La Jolla. Properties there are still really expensive. While I was there I visited the house of one of my clients that he just picked up a few short months ago. He paid almost $1 million for it and the Zillow.com price says it's now worth only around $920,000 a few short months later.

I still think there is more room to fall with real estate in the USA. As I mentioned before, I don't see too many areas around the world where real estate prices will go UP in 2009.

Still, California is a beautiful place and still probably one of my favorite states to live in the USA. I haven't been to La Jolla in a few years and forgot how beautiful it was. Spent some time in Del Mar as well and just a really gorgeous area.
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WTMendoza.com
Advanced Member
Username: Welcometomendoza

Post Number: 446
Registered: 7-2007


Posted on Wednesday, March 25, 2009 - 11:02 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

Mike, if I did this full time I would go crazy I just know it - but I don't. I remember when I tried to make a full time career out of it 11 years ago because of a few lucky big time trades at the beginning of the internet stock boom, and then subsequently having my keyboard handed to me on a plate, lol. These days I immensely enjoy discovering opties that I suspect and try to discover in the tape and the chart. I currently probably spend up to 2 hours a day on trade ideas, with one key hour at 3pm EST when I try to stop what I am doing for an hour and try to fish out opportunities in a list of about 75 stocks I monitor on a watch list. What I post is what I hobby with in a simulated portfolio, although I do make some real trades from time to time. I thought it would be fun to post the picks from the latest evolution of my system this year, especially as I was unable to until recently due to time constraints. The rally periods certainly makes it easier.

Agreed that it may get pretty tricky to flip properties for a while in California, but if buying to LIVE there, I don't thing it is a bad idea in certain parts of Southern California. The X factor is the guns and drugs and let's face it, some pretty different people in that area:-) (smiley). This economy will shake probably shake out allot of pain there and who knows how it could evolve. A great show indeed at the very least.

La Jolla right up to Carlsbad is a splendid area of SD, a great time in my life....next to Mendoza.
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WTMendoza.com
Advanced Member
Username: Welcometomendoza

Post Number: 447
Registered: 7-2007


Posted on Thursday, March 26, 2009 - 9:12 am:   Edit PostPrint Post

I forgot to mention that it seems, in my opinion, that they are gonna run the bank stocks again at some point , before any real pullback
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WTMendoza.com
Advanced Member
Username: Welcometomendoza

Post Number: 448
Registered: 7-2007


Posted on Thursday, March 26, 2009 - 4:47 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

too busy today to get involved although I would have bought in the sim port TEO, ESLR, HBC, and BPZ at the close with 4% targets in the next 1 to 8 sessions.

I also notice that the simulated portfolio is not executing some of my automatic limit sells, which puts my simulated profits much higher. This is the first time I have seen that happen at:

http://vse.marketwatch.com/Game/Portfolio.aspx?a=P cK48HV9h2bZS+k5Mfiy+uHPrfy7PzHZsUOXnM/2O0Owq6hrqVa fmChlfse7GQrO&g=WTM2009

Interesting to see the different financial stocks behave differently in today's up market, like the C/AIR/FRE/FNM rat pack down, and some others down also, and then up stocks like USB, JPM, HBC, COF, AXP, DB, - it seems liek to me these stocks may perfomr stronger in the short term and maybe the mid term

Thoughts?
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WTMendoza.com
Advanced Member
Username: Welcometomendoza

Post Number: 449
Registered: 7-2007


Posted on Thursday, April 02, 2009 - 3:51 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

felling pretty solo here - anybody out there?

I was maxed on on the sim port so could not make trades, and the Obama/GM stunner made things look pretty ugly on Monday - but this is why I usually call it 1 to 8 sessions for target hits.

I am still maxed out and I'm seeing that VSE is not executing all my automatic sells reliably for the moment- so this has become an unreliable tool for now.

If I had funds I would be adding the following long:
KBH - adding second allocation at 14.55
NBG - adding second allocation at 3.35
resetting time frame for these to to 1 to 8 sessions for a 4% gain on the new average cost

Looking at a few more that I probably wont be able to post until after the close
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WTMendoza.com
Advanced Member
Username: Welcometomendoza

Post Number: 452
Registered: 7-2007


Posted on Monday, April 27, 2009 - 12:25 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

well the bear comments have dwindled off this thread which is not uncommon in a bear market rally or whatever you want to call it. I am not bullish or bearish and prefer to read the tape and let the charts speak to me, otherwise I am asking for trouble.

I have opened up a new sim port as of today at
http://vse.marketwatch.com/Game/Portfolio.aspx?a=w lN9ZqvlCKxwavf88QU4gT7re9xGAJcUoWxqXMxnmJgZ8BXruYf MIaMO7z/4prwF&g=sm427123109

starting with 128k which gives me 16 allocations of 8k a piece.
This new portfolio will run until the end of 2009 with a desired target of at least 50%, which may or may not be hard if the market keeps going up but I have not changed the style of investments.

I shut down the January to April 2009 portfolio with a 21% gain, which for4 sure outperformed the indexes to-date.

I won't be positing investment ideas here anymore but the investments I make will always be registered in that link for the new portfolio. As usual 4% position gains are the objective in the portfolio and are achieved through limit sells (automatic sells) within a few days or weeks at the most.

Happy Investing!
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EAST WEST 3000
Junior Member
Username: Eastman

Post Number: 26
Registered: 1-2009
Posted on Thursday, April 30, 2009 - 7:39 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

nothing like a 300% gain in 5 days!

http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/charts/chartd l.aspx?PT=1&showchartbt=Redraw+chart&compsyms=&D4= 1&D5=0&DCS=2&CF=1&D7=&D6=&symbol=NVAX&nocookie=1&S Z=0
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EAST WEST 3000
Junior Member
Username: Eastman

Post Number: 27
Registered: 1-2009
Posted on Thursday, April 30, 2009 - 7:43 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

quote symbol : NVAX

company name: NOVAVAX
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Mark
Intermediate Member
Username: Lostintheandes

Post Number: 126
Registered: 10-2008
Posted on Thursday, May 14, 2009 - 7:13 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

Hey WTM, moved to CAPS. Lots of blogging. I'll email you.
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WTMendoza.com
Advanced Member
Username: Welcometomendoza

Post Number: 464
Registered: 7-2007


Posted on Sunday, May 31, 2009 - 10:55 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

Hi EastWest, NVAX sure is a traders delight but as you can see from it's performance, there remains allot of questions about that company against Swine flu and others.

I played NVS from 38 to 40 over the same period with a 5% locked gain, and now elect not to play swine flu stuff until things become more clear.

Meanwhile, short term investment opties are still always great out there in market land, and now EVERYBODY and their brother says gold now as a hedge, even my dad is asking me, I guess I have to relent some at least...

Yo Mark, what is CAPS? hope to see your missives soon, same with you Mike/Apts BA - cheers
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Mark
Intermediate Member
Username: Lostintheandes

Post Number: 128
Registered: 10-2008
Posted on Wednesday, June 03, 2009 - 10:44 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

wtm hope your well, let me know when you are back in town
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Post-it
Junior Member
Username: Postit

Post Number: 27
Registered: 2-2008
Posted on Saturday, June 27, 2009 - 4:53 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

My 2cent suggestion would be to look at NEAH Power systems (OTC:NPWS), backed by Intel, Novellus and the US Navy. They just successfully tested a new fuel cell prototype.
Plenty of background info and comments on Seeking Alpha, Investor village etc ('major technological break-through', 'enormous market potential' etc.) New video on You tube.

Before you dismiss this as the latest hoax, just have a look at the figures and Board and Management. The share price went up more than 10 fold (1200%) in the last three days...and it does not look like falling back soon (but then, you can never be sure...).

I remember that Apartmentsba mentioned, long time ago in another thread, that we needed new battery technology changing the energy landscape..this may be it..

Good luck to all,
Postit

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